“I can count correctly” and “[someone can demonstrate to me that] I’m counting incorrectly” are mutually exclusive hypotheses. Your confidence in the two ought not to add up to more than 1.
Not entirely. It is possible that someone may be able to provide a convincing demonstration of an untrue fact; either due to deliberate deception, or due to an extremely unlikely series of coincidences, or due to the person giving the demonstration genuinely but incorrectly thinking that what they are demonstrating is true.
So, there is some small possibility that I am counting correctly and someone can demonstrate to me that I am not counting correctly. The size of this possibility depends, among other things, on how easily I can be persuaded.
Not entirely. It is possible that someone may be able to provide a convincing demonstration of an untrue fact; either due to deliberate deception, or due to an extremely unlikely series of coincidences, or due to the person giving the demonstration genuinely but incorrectly thinking that what they are demonstrating is true.
So, there is some small possibility that I am counting correctly and someone can demonstrate to me that I am not counting correctly. The size of this possibility depends, among other things, on how easily I can be persuaded.