Yes, exactly! Darwin says very little about CI. He’s enormously critical of Alcor. Why? The answer is complicated, but part of it clearly is that he was a major force in Alcor in earlier years and has perfectionist standards that ignore costs and other real constraints. He may also be envious that he isn’t running things. Alas, his past relationships make that inevitable.
Despite his impulse to stick in the knife, I keep a close eye on his detailed blog posts, since he does have a remarkable depth of knowledge. That depth and his most excellent writing skills often fool people into believing that his judgment is better than it is. But, flawed as it is, his writing contains much of value, so I set my feelings aside and glean as much value as I can from his views.
If Darwin were to turn his attention to CI, the result would be truly ugly!
Please note, that I’m GLAD that CI exists. I respect Ben Best. I think he’s doing the best he can with what I think is a badly flawed approach. Although I worry about CI’s future, anyone who wants to be cryopreserved but genuinely cannot afford Alcor (about the cost of a venti coffee at Starbucks daily) should definitely look to CI and an alternative.
There’s no mystery about why I have comparatively few criticisms posted about CI. My reasons for this are as follows:
1) Ci is what it is. What you see is pretty much what you get, and that this is so is evident from the discussion here. The perception of CI as a “mom and pop” outfit is but one example I could cite from this discussion. Ci does not project itself as using a medically-based model of cryonics. It’s case histories are ghastly—and anyone who doesn’t take the time to read them, or who can’t see what the deficiencies are, well, you can’t (as I’ve learned the hard way) fix clueless.
2) I am not a CI member. The reason I am not a CI member can be divined from my written criticisms and by looking over point #1, above. If I were a Ci member, I have no doubt that I would have posted reams of criticisms. Note that I said “posted,” because, in fact, I have written reams of criticisms, suggestions, detailed technical advice and countless letters and personal communications on specific deficiencies at CI. I have also generated Power Point presentations and written many pages of material on how CI could improve its capabilities. To their credit, CI has at least listened to these suggestions and critiques; and they are responsive to same. This is not imply that they are receptive. But at least they listen and engage in dialogue. Alcor does not.
3) Since I am not a CI member, and I do not believe CI materially misrepresents itself, or its capabilities, and because they have invited private criticism in the past, I see no need to discuss their deficiencies publicly, beyond the (comparatively) brief remarks I’ve made from time to time. What would be the point of going further? The only exception I can think of is when CI takes actions that could, or which do materially impact the operation of cryonics as a whole. Some examples of that would be their submission to regulation by the Michigan Cemetery Board, their practice of accepting at need cases absent any defined standards for informed consent, and their practice of having morticians freeze, and if necessary, thaw cryonics “bodies,” whilst claiming that cryonics “patients” haven’t thawed out since the 1970s.
4) Because Alcor represents itself as a medically-scientifically based cryonics operation I believe that it is not only deserving of the criticism it has received, but of much more. While the care Alcor patients receive is, on average, much better than that available at CI, it is still, in my opinion, grossly substandard, frequently marred by inexcusable iatrogenesis, and not in keeping with the highly professional and medically sophisticated image that Alcor projects on its website, in its literature, and via the media. If anyone is truly interested, I’m wiling to discuss specifics—and in detail. In fact, shortly I will be posting a piece about research priorities in cryonics, which should give some perspective on just how Less Right Alcor has become.
[Please note that the server hosting the two files above is sometimes unavailable—please try again if you aren’t successful.]
This post http://chronopause.com/index.php/2011/05/29/a-visit-to-alcor/ provoked outrage from Max More and in private correspondence, now many months ago, he told me he was working on a response that would demonstrate my criticisms were in error.. Apparently, he is still working on it.
I’ve posted a more detailed explanation of the problems vis a vis Alcor and cryonics as a response to this post.
The major problems at Alcor are truly abysmal management, for which the Alcor Board of Directors is to blame, and lack of a professional culture and staff to administer the front end of cryopreservation. The situation is almost identical to one that would exist if the board of directors of a hospital tried to deliver medical services without physicians and nurses, but rather hired “the best they could find” to do these professionals’ jobs. Thus, there might be a veterinarian doing cardiac and neurosurgery, a chemist operating the heart lung machine, and so on. The absence of credentials, per se, is not the core issue here, because it is perfectly possible for such individuals to do these tasks and to do them “reasonably” well.
Because cryonics did not become a mainstream medical, industrial, or business activity, it necessarily is in the realm of very small “visionary enterprises,” like the early days of flight or radio, or perhaps in the realm of the dedicated (professional) amateurs. A good example of the latter is amateur astronomy, where the people involved are fantastic—mostly level headed, focused, responsible and astonishingly capable. Amateur astronomers have made more brass tacks basic discoverers of heavenly bodies than their professional counterparts, and they have made major contributions to the fundamental science, as well. There are essentially no kooks, and their equipment and facilities are often spectacular and demonstrate fabulous innovation and engineering skill.
The barnstormers at the start of flight were “crazy,” extreme personalities, but the fact that they had to fly and thus had to work with real machines which could CRASH and KILL them, kept them on track. However, a careful observer of their history will note that their mortality rate was terribly high. Those that survived barnstorming and doing air mail runs were, in effect, a “filtered product” who represented the best of practical skills, engineering ability, risk taking, and bad-ass courage. In that respect, Lindbergh and Fred Chamberlain had personalities that were extraordinarily similar.
I’ve had considerable contact with HAM radio clubs and amateur astronomers and there is simply no comparison to cryonicists. Ditto for the pioneering ultralight aircraft guys of 25 years ago. If you spend any time around these kinds of groups, you quickly see that they attract as many dysfunctional, narcissistic personalities, as does cryonics, but 99.9% of the time these people flake away, almost instantly. In the HAM groups it happens during the run up to getting your basic license. It doesn’t matter how much physics you know, or how smart you are, most of the test is FCC regulations, proper jargon, and things that you must memorize. The loonies flee!
Having said that, it’s been interesting to watch the quality of amateur radio enthusiasts plummet in recent years. This is because the equipment is now all solid state, it is much less expensive, and the days of building you own radios from parts are over. Also, the requirement for Morse code was dropped from the entry level licensing exam.
If you, or I, or anyone else looked at a TV set, or an MP3 player, or even a modern HAM radio and said, “I’m going to build one of those; I can do it just as well as Samsung and much less expensively,” we’d likely all just laugh and figure the poor guy was crazy. Nobody tries to do that because it is stupid, just like no one in their right mind says, “My wife needs open heart surgery and those bastards at the Medical Center want $50K to do it! That’s ridiculous, I’ve seen it done on TV and my brother in law is a veterinarian, so we’re going to do it ourselves.” The hubris required to take such an action, let alone the lack of commonsense, is just indescribable.
Now, if your wife needs surgery, you cannot possibly find a doctor to do it, and you think you can learn the craft well enough to give her fighting chance, well that’s another matter—depending upon how you go at it! If you have 5-6 years to prepare, you’re willing to do the work and you’re willing to kill a LOT of dogs, you can indeed teach yourself the basics and perhaps have a 25% chance of pulling it off—providing it is a SIMPLE surgical procedure that she needs. You can actually do this from books, journals and lots of failed attempts in the “dog lab.” When I was kid in the late 1960s, several teens a little older than me (15-16 years old) actually set up and did do cardiac surgery in their garages on dogs, and the animals survived! They built their own heart lung machines (HLMs). Today, such an action would be illegal and it is impossible to imagine teenagers building their own heart lung machines! But, in fact, this really happened.
The first practical HLM was built by the maverick surgeon C. Walton Lillehei, and a colleague, Richard Dewall . Lillihei was the archetype of the founder of almost any daring new profession (in this case, cardiac surgery): he was brilliant, courageous—just an incredible man. He started doing open heart surgery BEFORE the HLM by using another human being as the HLM in a technique called “cross circulation.” He’d hook up a volunteer to the patient and use the volunteer’s heart and lungs to support the patient while he operated. This was brutally controversial at the time and, of course, eventually one of the volunteers died due to a technical error in the OR! It was almost the end of Lillehei, and he barely escaped criminal prosecution. I mention Lillehei because his first HLM was built from a commercial “finger” tubing pump, with the oxygenator made from PVC beer tubing, a cheap glass frit, some stainless steel pot scratcher pads, and other odds and ends. Their total cost, excluding the pumps, was ~ $15.00: http://i293.photobucket.com/albums/mm55/mikedarwin1967/m8jpg.jpg
It worked brilliantly and was the design template for every HLM up until bubble oxygenators were replaced by membranes in the late 1980s. Now, if you look at the machine in that picture, it is something that anyone with a modicum of hand-skills could build. The pumps were standard, off the shelf industrial finger-pumps used in the food processing industry. So, a kid with some bucks really could build his own HLM—in fact, he could do it today. The difference is, as I previously pointed out, is that he’d be hauled off to jail if he tried to use it. And if you can’t use it, why build it?
However, if you really want to master (simple) basic cardiac surgery, it will cost you a fortune in time, equipment, animals and supplies. The only way such a situation would make sense is if you were in a world where there were lots of doctors, medical supplies, equipment and so on, but you and your wife were banned from access to them. Your money wasn’t any good and you had to “operate underground,” literally. That’s the situation cryonics was in and still is in, to a great degree.
The critical difference is that there is today in cryonics no perceived need to “get it right” with animals, or any other feedback-driven test system. It’s like the guy I describe above who just decides he and vet brother in law will show up in the garage one day with whatever their idea of what is needed is, and they’ll simply operate on his wife! But wait, what happens if they do that? Well, pretty clearly it will be a HORRIBLE MESS, not only will the wife die, but it will be a gruesome fuck up—just unimaginably bad—worse than if she were murdered with an ax. Then what happens? Well, they go to jail, there will be a huge outcry, it will be front page news. In short, they will get subjected to the CONSEQUENCES of their stupid and irresponsible acts.
However, if you are “freezing” your wife, well, who knows how it turned out? Who cares? She looks great! You feel real good about it! And if she does thaw out and rot, well, she was dead anyway, right? So, no harm and no foul. Certainly there are no social or legal consequences for any errors, oversights or failures. There isn’t even any way to KNOW that such things might have (or indeed did happen).
THAT IS CRYONICS.
And when good quality people do come along, or people who sincerely want to put their money into cryonics, there is always some damned fool who will tell them how easy it is, how much more quickly THEY will show them results, and on and on and on. If you were doing anything else; running a dog food company, or making women’s’ handbags, you couldn’t get away with that, because the product wouldn’t sell and you might even be in court for killing peoples’ pets with tainted food. But, not so with cryonics...
Cryonics came reasonably close to crossing the threshold into professionalism with Alcor in the 1980s, but that effort imploded. Jerry Leaf was cryopreserved and I left to pursue more conventional biomedical research (a terrible mistake, in hindsight). Absent a well defined and well established culture of professionalism that included self-correcting feedback mechanisms, Alcor fell back to become something broadly similar to CI. Instead of functioning as a hospital board of directors does, Alcor’s Directors became de facto managers—arbiters of the technical details of care, by default. This has been a disaster, not only for those receiving such care, but because Alcor (much more than CI) now serves as a spolier to professionalism. The high tech veneer and the appearance of biomedical competence short circuit any perception that something is seriously wrong, and that things were once, and could again be, much better.
Mike, let’s be fair about this. Veterinary surgeons for thoracic surgery (after loss of Jerry Leaf) and chemists for running perfusion machines were also used during your tenure managing biomedical affairs at Alcor two decades ago. You trained and utilized lay people to do all kinds procedures that would ordinarily be done by medical or paramedical professionals, including establishing airways, mechanical circulation, and I.V. administration of fluids and medications. Manuals provided to lay students even included directions for doing femoral cutdown surgery.
The good cases that you were able to do with lay help (and being only a dialysis technician by credential yourself) are the stuff of cryonics legend. That was how cryonics was done back then. With the resources that were available then, and the need to provide cryonics response over vast geographic areas, using trained lay cryonicists was the most effective way to deliver cryonics care for many years. Some history of this is discussed here
In the 2000s Alcor began to supplement trained lay cryonicist teams by deploying a staff paramedic to cases whenever possible. In the 2010s, Alcor began using Suspended Animation, Inc., more extensively. As announced here,
Alcor policy is now to use Suspended Animation, Inc.., (SA) for all cases in the continental U.S. outside of Arizona which SA can reach in time. Local trained lay teams are now only used as first responders, bridging time between notification of emergencies and arrival of SA.
The significance of this is that SA now uses board certified cardiovascular surgeons and certified clinical perfusionists on almost all cases. I’ve met two of SA’s contract cardiovascular surgeons, one of whom trained under Michael DeBakey. These are top-rank professionals who go out on cryonics standbys, and get cryonics patients on cardiopulmonary bypass faster than ever before in cryonics. They established fem-fem bypass on one patient last year in only 15 minutes.
These are professional surgeons and perfusionists who do median sternotomies and cannulations so fast that in their day jobs they actually save patients who suffer cardiac arrest from fixable causes (e.g. “fatal” DVTs). This is now the level of care available under ideal circumstances in cryonics.
In Alcor’s O.R., Alcor is presently evaluating and training two board certified general surgeons to supplement the veterinary surgeon and neurosurgeon who have been used by Alcor for the past 15 years. Alcor has transitioned toward utilization of professionals whenever possible or practical. There are now more medical professionals doing the work of cryonics than ever before in the history of cryonics; not just scientists and technicians, but actual clinicians.
You are also mistaken, at least partially, about utilization of animal models in training. Even though professional surgeons and perfusionists already have extensive and ongoing clinical experience, SA uses a porcine model to train its contract surgeons, perfusionists, and other personnel in the specific procedures of cryonics.
There are shortcomings to this model. Contract clinicians are extremely skilled at specific procedures that must be done, but they are not cryonicists. For example, they don’t understand cerebral ischemic injury, its mechanisms, and significance in the context of cryonics. This can hypothetically lead to difficulties understanding and managing cases with moderate periods of warm ischemia that would ordinarily be “written off” in conventional medicine. Cryonicist involvement is still essential. However on balance, as measured by the speed and competent handling of standbys and transports in which they have been involved, participation of cardiovascular surgeons and perfusionists has been very positive. I hope we can continue to afford it.
Brian, when you say: “Mike, let’s be fair about this. Veterinary surgeons for thoracic surgery (after loss of Jerry Leaf) and chemists for running perfusion machines were also used during your tenure managing biomedical affairs at Alcor two decades ago. You trained and utilized lay people to do all kinds procedures that would ordinarily be done by medical or paramedical professionals, including establishing airways, mechanical circulation, and I.V. administration of fluids and medications. Manuals provided to lay students even included directions for doing femoral cutdown surgery,” you are either not reading what I wrote or are not being fair yourself. I not only acknowledge that this was so, I go so far as to say it is completely acceptable with the caveat that such people are instructed, vetted and mentored properly. I’ll go even further (as I have repeatedly, elsewhere) and state that the most highly qualified medical personnel can be dangerous, or even worse than useless unless they have been trained and mentored in human cryopreservation as a specialty. There’s nothing remarkable about this; no reasonable person would want a psychiatrist or a dermatologist doing bowel or brain surgery.
Some of the same people who performed very well in the past, and who are not medically qualified, are still at Alcor. The individual people, per se (in this instance), are not the problem. Rather, it’s the absence of the paradigm of cryonics as a professional medical undertaking that’s missing. The evidence for that is present in Alcor’s own case histories where highly qualified medical personnel do things like discontinue cardiopulmonary support on still warm patients in order to open their chests for cannulation (http://alcor.org/Library/pdfs/casereportA2435.pdf) or drill burr holes without irrigating the drilling site with chilled fluid to prevent regional heating of the brain under the burr. We are in complete agreement on these issues, as far as I can tell. Where we apparently differ is on how to resolve them.
The most interesting thing to me about this post from Brian is information it communicates for the first time. I follow Alcor’s announcements, read its magazine and track its public blog, as I necessarily must, so I am surprised to learn that “In Alcor’s O.R., Alcor is presently evaluating and training two board certified general surgeons to supplement the veterinary surgeon and neurosurgeon who have been used by Alcor for the past 15 years.” This is the kind of information that I would expect to see showcased in the organization’s literature and on its website, not disclosed here. This is the kind of thing that happens over and over and which degrades member confidence in the transparency of the organization. The next question is, who what, where and how? What are the details of this training? What kind of model is being used? What are the results to date?
Yes, SA does use pigs for training, but they use them in a non-survival mode—they get no robust feedback about errors, and no new insights. In fact, Brian might have mentioned that Alcor has used both animals and human cadavers in this manner, but I think he understood that the point I was making was about vetting your skills in an outcome driven fashion. That is not being done.
What’s even more disturbing is that there is virtually no visibility into the outcome from even these training operations. SA and Alcor are both essentially black boxes—there is no data, no performance reports, not even any reports or internal scoring of how well simulated cases proceeded. There’s at least one reason for this, and that is that there is no scoring system, internal or external. When things go wrong, well, it’s oops, we shouldn’t do that next time. And if that isn’t the case, then I’d love to hear it and I want to see the data to document it. That is an eminently reasonable request.
It’s great that Alcor can sometimes mount skilled perfusionists and highly skilled emergency vascular surgeons. But that isn’t the issue. The issue is the framework of knowledge, understanding and consistent performance that is absent. A surgeon or a perfusionist are, absent mentoring (internship), TOOLS to be used by and within that framework. If a man tells me he has the best glass cutting tool money can buy, but he doesn’t know how to cut glass, well, I’m going to be underwhelmed.
Alcor patient case reports are disorganized, inconsistent and erratic narratives that make objective evaluation impossible. No great genius is required to consistently collect and organize the key data that define how well a case went—or didn’t. The first cryonics case report was done by a 17 year old and a 22 year old graduate student:
Examples of competently executed cases and case reports are available on Alcor’s own web site and the data captured, reduced and presented in these case reports was achieved using a tiny fraction of the financial and personnel resources Alcor currently has available:
I’m not trying to be contrary, difficult, or unreasonable. What I am asking for is core competence, not perfection. There is nothing either exotic or impossible in that. For example, Alcor has a Novametrix CO2SMO capnograph and respiratory function analyzer. The device can effortlessly capture and write to disk over 60 different respiratory parameters and it measures the end-tidal expired carbon dioxide (EtCO2) in the patient’s breath. The EtCO2 is the gold standard for determining how effective cardiopulmonary support (CPS) is. And if CPS is not effective, than that is both additional ischemic time the patient is experiencing and it is an opportunity to intervene and fix the situation. Or at worst, it offers the possibility of learning what caused inadequate CPS so that it might be avoided next time. The only skill required to use the device is to put the walnut sized sensor in line between the patient’s airway and the ventilator on the LUCAS CPR machine: http://frankshospitalworkshop.com/equipment/documents/pulse_oximeter/user_manuals/Novametrix_8100_-_User_manual.pdf
That should make it easily possible to produce graphic data like this:
THAT kind of data speaks definitively to how that patient was stabilized and transported, and in aggregate it provides a statistical dataset that speaks to the overall performance of the organization. It should be accompanied with graphic data for the patient’s TEMPERATURE, mean arterial pressure (until the time of arrest), the SpO2 (pulse ox) and other relevant data. This was done in the past by stressed out, sleep deprived, mostly volunteer people who were trained in-house. If that kind of data collection and accountability are considered “perfectionist,” or some kind of golden past no longer to be achieved, then I restate my opinion that something is terribly wrong.
Paramedics are taught that the single most important and most critical indication of the efficacy, or lack thereof, of CPR is the EtCO2 of the patient over time. Where is this data???? This is only one of countless examples I could use—but it is especially relevant because it is simple data to collect, and I know from Alcor’s recent case reports that they have a CO2SMO and they are actually using it on patients during the peri-arrest hospice period. Again, where is the data? That data is the ONLY way anyone has to evaluate the quality of cryonics cases because the patients cannot speak to us.
If you want to stop my criticisms, you need only show me the data and offer me and everyone else the opportunity to be reasonably certain it is valid and representative.
Your points are mostly well-taken, Mike. Not everything is better than it used to be. While the basic cryopreservation technology (vitrification) is better, and some important aspects of service delivery are better, Alcor does not have in-house expertise comparable to the era of you and Jerry Leaf. With the benefit of hindsight, I would say that people of such caliber willing to devote their life to cryonics are a historical anomaly not amenable to formulaic replication.
With respect to communications, the two new potential O.R. surgeons I spoke of were not a public announcement being withheld because Alcor is opaque and untrustworthy. Contact was made with them only within the past few weeks, as discussed at a recent public board meeting. I mentioned them only because your message seemed to imply that Alcor was content with the status quo.
I confess that you have a knack for twisting the knife of public criticism in ways that prompt me to “announce” things that aren’t ripe for announcement, and that lead to more questions and criticism. When will I learn? :)
“I follow Alcor’s announcements, read its magazine and track its public blog, as I necessarily must, so I am surprised to learn that “In Alcor’s O.R., Alcor is presently evaluating and training two board certified general surgeons to supplement the veterinary surgeon and neurosurgeon who have been used by Alcor for the past 15 years.” This is the kind of information that I would expect to see showcased in the organization’s literature and on its website, not disclosed here. This is the kind of thing that happens over and over and which degrades member confidence in the transparency of the organization. ”
In fact, I did mention the new surgeons, briefly, in an Alcor News post on April 2:
http://www.alcor.org/blog/?p=2518
And similarly in the issue of Cryonics magazine now in production. Since we are just starting to work with these surgeons, it didn’t yet seem appropriate to report much more. We are continually reporting on just about everything. Your attempt to cast Alcor as non-transparent should be obviously false to anyone who looks at what we communicate.
I think I’m missing something here. As I understand it, you (Mike Darwin) have a great deal of experience and expertise in the actual practice of cryonics, as well as a lot of actionable recommendations. The current staff at Alcor (e.g., Max More) seem to take you seriously.
Is it a silly question to ask why you’re not working for Alcor?
No, and that’s the trouble! Because, you see, if cryonics were like any other medical procedure, I’d simply point to the STATISTICS and to the MAIMED and DEAD patients. In fact, the errors and screw ups would be a huge public scandal, because people would have SUFFERED and DIED. Indeed, the patients themselves (who were not killed outright) would be hollering to high heaven via every available media outlet. Cryonics patients never complain because they can’t.
Because no cryonics patient suffers, or dies, or experiences any other OUTCOME of any kind, your only choice, if you want to understand differences in procedures, quality of care, and so on, is to delve into the complex, technical specifics.
You don’t have to learn the details of automotive engineering, metallurgy, and so on, to go pick out a good automobile. All of that huge body of technical and scientific knowledge is effectively INVISIBLE to you as a consumer (as well it should be) because you can look at PERFORMANCE as your guide to making a good buy. All that science and engineering gets reduced to miles per liter, road reliability and, of course, your comfort, convenience and safety while driving it! So “close” are the performance specs between automobiles that a significant part of what makes therm sell and out-compete each other is styling—just how the damn thing looks!
Perhaps Alcor should do the perfusions and freezing and CI chug away at the storage which needs safety and stability. About Mike’s or anyone’s judgment for that matter, it is a commonplace that no one person has good judgment in all areas. Alcor’s judgment in selection of personnel may be comparatively poor, but on the other hand I note few comments of a scientific or technical nature on his technical arguments, and as my own knowledge is rusty, I crave input from someone other than Mike of an exact nature, and not the dismissive “often fool people into believing that his judgment is better than it is” type of comment. I’m not fooled by any of this, but sorely lacking in the means to exercise my own intellect on the critical area of perfusion technology and I am becoming concerned that Mike’s technical postings are ignored in substance and detail because of a general lack of technical and scientific know-how in both organizations. At some point in the future if research on reanimation continues to be at or near zero BOTH organizations will be storing people whose information loss is approaching an upper asymptote of 100% regardless of the technology used to get them into the capsules in the first place.
This post from Max More is the kind of post that I would expect to see voted off of LessWrong. I have not had a substantive conversation with Max More about cryonics, let alone my personal position, psychology, desires or motivations in over 20 years. We did correspond recently, and I have asked Max for permission to make that complete correspondence, minus personal incidentals not material to cryonics, public. He has flatly refused. Why, I do not know, but I do know that that is the only substantive communication he and I have had in decades and that it is completely documented in writing. Prior to that, at least to my knowledge, our relationship was cordial and not marred by any disagreements or conflicts. Nor do we have any confidants or intimates in common. Thus, the question arises, how would Max know anything about whether I am “envious that I’m not running things”? As he says, he doesn’t know this, he can only speculate because he has refused to speak with me on these matters.
He then goes on to say something that I find remarkable to be left unchallenged here on LessWrong:
“That depth (of knowledge) and his most excellent writing skills often fool people into believing that his judgment is better than it is”
LessWrong, as I understand it, is a forum where people are mastering the craft and science of evaluating the logic and substance of the arguments put forth by people, including thinkers and writers here and elsewhere—not based on their style, cleverness of articulation, or their speculations. If anyone has questions about the assertions I make, feel free to ask for the evidence. We may not always agree on how to weight it, but the evidence will (hopefully) always be there, and it will be credible. Where I overstep or make a mistake, you will find me quick to acknowledge and apologize.
http://chronopause.com/index.php/2011/08/09/fucked/ and sequels have cost you more than one LWer’s opinion of your judgment because it matched exactly the sort of doomsaying which has cost contrarians literally billions of dollars over the past 4 years in bad bets against the dollar and US stocks (eg. Peter Thiel’s Clarium fund alone, or Dr. Doom for that matter). It’s not a surprise if they acknowledge your facts but question your judgment, which is the same sentiment Max is expressing.
My comments about economic, social and political matters don’t speak to how people should invest in the market, or to who will win the coming election. They speak to the general condition of the economy and the culture over the long haul. As I’ve observed in print before, plenty of people will get rich, and millions of people have gotten richer, despite the fact that diversion of wealth from the people who primarily produce it is at an all time high. I am the first to acknowledge that it has been fantastic advances in productivity that have made this possible. But that doesn’t make the reality go away that the system is increasingly thwarting innovation, overspending its resource base, and appropriating vast amounts of wealth which is used inefficiently, is wasted, or is actually used for contra-productive purposes.
All I have said, in addition to these fairly mundane observations, is that, sooner or later, something’s got to give. To some extent this has already happened in that many trillions of dollars of wealth have disappeared, or been reallocated to cover “bad actions” of various kinds. The situation in Europe is actually much worse than it is here, and if it becomes impossible to maintain solvency of large EU nations such Greece, Italy and Spain, then the effect will, again, be felt in the US and elsewhere.
What I have no way of knowing is how much “re-assignable” wealth is present in the system—and just as importantly, if it will be reassigned to cover “bad acts.” That’ difficult to assess wealth covers a huge range of goods and actions, from the quality of food people eat, to whether they use paper towels or go back to using rags! I’ve never claimed any special insight in those matters, and for good reason; because the data to make those kinds of “forecasts” simply isn’t available.
So, my position is very much like that of someone who warns that “crime doesn’t pay.” It doesn’t—not in the long run, because it is destructive of productivity, and destructive of effective human social interaction. But the BIG question is, what exactly constitutes the “long run?” That’s not a joke, and I am mindful that the Soviet Union ground on for 70 years. That’s an economist’s eternity, and then some. Pepsi Cola made millions betting that Soviet Russia would continue for decades. Do I think Fidelista Cuba is doomed? Absolutely. I also think it is a miserable, oppressive place. But I wouldn’t care to give any odds on how long it will survive.
Finally, if all the “non-contrarians” on this matter are concerned with or about is financial gain, regardless of the system’s characteristics or “meta-qualities,” then I have nothing to say to them and their disappointment in my “judgment” is as understandable as it is mutual.
Yes, exactly! Darwin says very little about CI. He’s enormously critical of Alcor. Why? The answer is complicated, but part of it clearly is that he was a major force in Alcor in earlier years and has perfectionist standards that ignore costs and other real constraints. He may also be envious that he isn’t running things. Alas, his past relationships make that inevitable.
Despite his impulse to stick in the knife, I keep a close eye on his detailed blog posts, since he does have a remarkable depth of knowledge. That depth and his most excellent writing skills often fool people into believing that his judgment is better than it is. But, flawed as it is, his writing contains much of value, so I set my feelings aside and glean as much value as I can from his views.
If Darwin were to turn his attention to CI, the result would be truly ugly!
Please note, that I’m GLAD that CI exists. I respect Ben Best. I think he’s doing the best he can with what I think is a badly flawed approach. Although I worry about CI’s future, anyone who wants to be cryopreserved but genuinely cannot afford Alcor (about the cost of a venti coffee at Starbucks daily) should definitely look to CI and an alternative.
--Max
There’s no mystery about why I have comparatively few criticisms posted about CI. My reasons for this are as follows:
1) Ci is what it is. What you see is pretty much what you get, and that this is so is evident from the discussion here. The perception of CI as a “mom and pop” outfit is but one example I could cite from this discussion. Ci does not project itself as using a medically-based model of cryonics. It’s case histories are ghastly—and anyone who doesn’t take the time to read them, or who can’t see what the deficiencies are, well, you can’t (as I’ve learned the hard way) fix clueless.
2) I am not a CI member. The reason I am not a CI member can be divined from my written criticisms and by looking over point #1, above. If I were a Ci member, I have no doubt that I would have posted reams of criticisms. Note that I said “posted,” because, in fact, I have written reams of criticisms, suggestions, detailed technical advice and countless letters and personal communications on specific deficiencies at CI. I have also generated Power Point presentations and written many pages of material on how CI could improve its capabilities. To their credit, CI has at least listened to these suggestions and critiques; and they are responsive to same. This is not imply that they are receptive. But at least they listen and engage in dialogue. Alcor does not.
3) Since I am not a CI member, and I do not believe CI materially misrepresents itself, or its capabilities, and because they have invited private criticism in the past, I see no need to discuss their deficiencies publicly, beyond the (comparatively) brief remarks I’ve made from time to time. What would be the point of going further? The only exception I can think of is when CI takes actions that could, or which do materially impact the operation of cryonics as a whole. Some examples of that would be their submission to regulation by the Michigan Cemetery Board, their practice of accepting at need cases absent any defined standards for informed consent, and their practice of having morticians freeze, and if necessary, thaw cryonics “bodies,” whilst claiming that cryonics “patients” haven’t thawed out since the 1970s.
4) Because Alcor represents itself as a medically-scientifically based cryonics operation I believe that it is not only deserving of the criticism it has received, but of much more. While the care Alcor patients receive is, on average, much better than that available at CI, it is still, in my opinion, grossly substandard, frequently marred by inexcusable iatrogenesis, and not in keeping with the highly professional and medically sophisticated image that Alcor projects on its website, in its literature, and via the media. If anyone is truly interested, I’m wiling to discuss specifics—and in detail. In fact, shortly I will be posting a piece about research priorities in cryonics, which should give some perspective on just how Less Right Alcor has become.
5) The problem is deeper than the specifics at Alcor, it is inherent in cryonics itself. A simple introduction to the root problem can be found here: http://chronopause.com/index.php/2011/02/13/on-the-need-for-prosthetic-nocioception-in-cryonics/
A much more detailed analysis of the problems that have beset and thwarted cryonics can be found here :
http://cryoeuro.eu:8080/download/attachments/425990/Cryonics_Failure_Analysis_Part_2v5.2.pdf
http://cryoeuro.eu:8080/download/attachments/425990/Cryonics_Failure_Analysis_Part_3v5.4.pdf
[Please note that the server hosting the two files above is sometimes unavailable—please try again if you aren’t successful.]
This post http://chronopause.com/index.php/2011/05/29/a-visit-to-alcor/ provoked outrage from Max More and in private correspondence, now many months ago, he told me he was working on a response that would demonstrate my criticisms were in error.. Apparently, he is still working on it.
I’ve posted a more detailed explanation of the problems vis a vis Alcor and cryonics as a response to this post.
The major problems at Alcor are truly abysmal management, for which the Alcor Board of Directors is to blame, and lack of a professional culture and staff to administer the front end of cryopreservation. The situation is almost identical to one that would exist if the board of directors of a hospital tried to deliver medical services without physicians and nurses, but rather hired “the best they could find” to do these professionals’ jobs. Thus, there might be a veterinarian doing cardiac and neurosurgery, a chemist operating the heart lung machine, and so on. The absence of credentials, per se, is not the core issue here, because it is perfectly possible for such individuals to do these tasks and to do them “reasonably” well.
Because cryonics did not become a mainstream medical, industrial, or business activity, it necessarily is in the realm of very small “visionary enterprises,” like the early days of flight or radio, or perhaps in the realm of the dedicated (professional) amateurs. A good example of the latter is amateur astronomy, where the people involved are fantastic—mostly level headed, focused, responsible and astonishingly capable. Amateur astronomers have made more brass tacks basic discoverers of heavenly bodies than their professional counterparts, and they have made major contributions to the fundamental science, as well. There are essentially no kooks, and their equipment and facilities are often spectacular and demonstrate fabulous innovation and engineering skill.
The barnstormers at the start of flight were “crazy,” extreme personalities, but the fact that they had to fly and thus had to work with real machines which could CRASH and KILL them, kept them on track. However, a careful observer of their history will note that their mortality rate was terribly high. Those that survived barnstorming and doing air mail runs were, in effect, a “filtered product” who represented the best of practical skills, engineering ability, risk taking, and bad-ass courage. In that respect, Lindbergh and Fred Chamberlain had personalities that were extraordinarily similar.
I’ve had considerable contact with HAM radio clubs and amateur astronomers and there is simply no comparison to cryonicists. Ditto for the pioneering ultralight aircraft guys of 25 years ago. If you spend any time around these kinds of groups, you quickly see that they attract as many dysfunctional, narcissistic personalities, as does cryonics, but 99.9% of the time these people flake away, almost instantly. In the HAM groups it happens during the run up to getting your basic license. It doesn’t matter how much physics you know, or how smart you are, most of the test is FCC regulations, proper jargon, and things that you must memorize. The loonies flee!
Having said that, it’s been interesting to watch the quality of amateur radio enthusiasts plummet in recent years. This is because the equipment is now all solid state, it is much less expensive, and the days of building you own radios from parts are over. Also, the requirement for Morse code was dropped from the entry level licensing exam.
If you, or I, or anyone else looked at a TV set, or an MP3 player, or even a modern HAM radio and said, “I’m going to build one of those; I can do it just as well as Samsung and much less expensively,” we’d likely all just laugh and figure the poor guy was crazy. Nobody tries to do that because it is stupid, just like no one in their right mind says, “My wife needs open heart surgery and those bastards at the Medical Center want $50K to do it! That’s ridiculous, I’ve seen it done on TV and my brother in law is a veterinarian, so we’re going to do it ourselves.” The hubris required to take such an action, let alone the lack of commonsense, is just indescribable.
Now, if your wife needs surgery, you cannot possibly find a doctor to do it, and you think you can learn the craft well enough to give her fighting chance, well that’s another matter—depending upon how you go at it! If you have 5-6 years to prepare, you’re willing to do the work and you’re willing to kill a LOT of dogs, you can indeed teach yourself the basics and perhaps have a 25% chance of pulling it off—providing it is a SIMPLE surgical procedure that she needs. You can actually do this from books, journals and lots of failed attempts in the “dog lab.” When I was kid in the late 1960s, several teens a little older than me (15-16 years old) actually set up and did do cardiac surgery in their garages on dogs, and the animals survived! They built their own heart lung machines (HLMs). Today, such an action would be illegal and it is impossible to imagine teenagers building their own heart lung machines! But, in fact, this really happened.
The first practical HLM was built by the maverick surgeon C. Walton Lillehei, and a colleague, Richard Dewall . Lillihei was the archetype of the founder of almost any daring new profession (in this case, cardiac surgery): he was brilliant, courageous—just an incredible man. He started doing open heart surgery BEFORE the HLM by using another human being as the HLM in a technique called “cross circulation.” He’d hook up a volunteer to the patient and use the volunteer’s heart and lungs to support the patient while he operated. This was brutally controversial at the time and, of course, eventually one of the volunteers died due to a technical error in the OR! It was almost the end of Lillehei, and he barely escaped criminal prosecution. I mention Lillehei because his first HLM was built from a commercial “finger” tubing pump, with the oxygenator made from PVC beer tubing, a cheap glass frit, some stainless steel pot scratcher pads, and other odds and ends. Their total cost, excluding the pumps, was ~ $15.00: http://i293.photobucket.com/albums/mm55/mikedarwin1967/m8jpg.jpg
It worked brilliantly and was the design template for every HLM up until bubble oxygenators were replaced by membranes in the late 1980s. Now, if you look at the machine in that picture, it is something that anyone with a modicum of hand-skills could build. The pumps were standard, off the shelf industrial finger-pumps used in the food processing industry. So, a kid with some bucks really could build his own HLM—in fact, he could do it today. The difference is, as I previously pointed out, is that he’d be hauled off to jail if he tried to use it. And if you can’t use it, why build it?
However, if you really want to master (simple) basic cardiac surgery, it will cost you a fortune in time, equipment, animals and supplies. The only way such a situation would make sense is if you were in a world where there were lots of doctors, medical supplies, equipment and so on, but you and your wife were banned from access to them. Your money wasn’t any good and you had to “operate underground,” literally. That’s the situation cryonics was in and still is in, to a great degree.
The critical difference is that there is today in cryonics no perceived need to “get it right” with animals, or any other feedback-driven test system. It’s like the guy I describe above who just decides he and vet brother in law will show up in the garage one day with whatever their idea of what is needed is, and they’ll simply operate on his wife! But wait, what happens if they do that? Well, pretty clearly it will be a HORRIBLE MESS, not only will the wife die, but it will be a gruesome fuck up—just unimaginably bad—worse than if she were murdered with an ax. Then what happens? Well, they go to jail, there will be a huge outcry, it will be front page news. In short, they will get subjected to the CONSEQUENCES of their stupid and irresponsible acts.
However, if you are “freezing” your wife, well, who knows how it turned out? Who cares? She looks great! You feel real good about it! And if she does thaw out and rot, well, she was dead anyway, right? So, no harm and no foul. Certainly there are no social or legal consequences for any errors, oversights or failures. There isn’t even any way to KNOW that such things might have (or indeed did happen).
THAT IS CRYONICS.
And when good quality people do come along, or people who sincerely want to put their money into cryonics, there is always some damned fool who will tell them how easy it is, how much more quickly THEY will show them results, and on and on and on. If you were doing anything else; running a dog food company, or making women’s’ handbags, you couldn’t get away with that, because the product wouldn’t sell and you might even be in court for killing peoples’ pets with tainted food. But, not so with cryonics...
Cryonics came reasonably close to crossing the threshold into professionalism with Alcor in the 1980s, but that effort imploded. Jerry Leaf was cryopreserved and I left to pursue more conventional biomedical research (a terrible mistake, in hindsight). Absent a well defined and well established culture of professionalism that included self-correcting feedback mechanisms, Alcor fell back to become something broadly similar to CI. Instead of functioning as a hospital board of directors does, Alcor’s Directors became de facto managers—arbiters of the technical details of care, by default. This has been a disaster, not only for those receiving such care, but because Alcor (much more than CI) now serves as a spolier to professionalism. The high tech veneer and the appearance of biomedical competence short circuit any perception that something is seriously wrong, and that things were once, and could again be, much better.
Mike, let’s be fair about this. Veterinary surgeons for thoracic surgery (after loss of Jerry Leaf) and chemists for running perfusion machines were also used during your tenure managing biomedical affairs at Alcor two decades ago. You trained and utilized lay people to do all kinds procedures that would ordinarily be done by medical or paramedical professionals, including establishing airways, mechanical circulation, and I.V. administration of fluids and medications. Manuals provided to lay students even included directions for doing femoral cutdown surgery.
http://www.alcor.org/Library/html/1990manual.html
The good cases that you were able to do with lay help (and being only a dialysis technician by credential yourself) are the stuff of cryonics legend. That was how cryonics was done back then. With the resources that were available then, and the need to provide cryonics response over vast geographic areas, using trained lay cryonicists was the most effective way to deliver cryonics care for many years. Some history of this is discussed here
http://www.alcor.org/Library/html/professionals.html
In the 2000s Alcor began to supplement trained lay cryonicist teams by deploying a staff paramedic to cases whenever possible. In the 2010s, Alcor began using Suspended Animation, Inc., more extensively. As announced here,
http://www.alcor.org/blog/?p=2174
Alcor policy is now to use Suspended Animation, Inc.., (SA) for all cases in the continental U.S. outside of Arizona which SA can reach in time. Local trained lay teams are now only used as first responders, bridging time between notification of emergencies and arrival of SA.
The significance of this is that SA now uses board certified cardiovascular surgeons and certified clinical perfusionists on almost all cases. I’ve met two of SA’s contract cardiovascular surgeons, one of whom trained under Michael DeBakey. These are top-rank professionals who go out on cryonics standbys, and get cryonics patients on cardiopulmonary bypass faster than ever before in cryonics. They established fem-fem bypass on one patient last year in only 15 minutes.
http://www.alcor.org/blog/?p=2175
Another patient was placed on bypass only 7 minutes after arrival in SA’s vehicle using emergency median sternotomy, never before done in cryonics.
http://www.alcor.org/blog/?p=2267
These are professional surgeons and perfusionists who do median sternotomies and cannulations so fast that in their day jobs they actually save patients who suffer cardiac arrest from fixable causes (e.g. “fatal” DVTs). This is now the level of care available under ideal circumstances in cryonics.
In Alcor’s O.R., Alcor is presently evaluating and training two board certified general surgeons to supplement the veterinary surgeon and neurosurgeon who have been used by Alcor for the past 15 years. Alcor has transitioned toward utilization of professionals whenever possible or practical. There are now more medical professionals doing the work of cryonics than ever before in the history of cryonics; not just scientists and technicians, but actual clinicians.
You are also mistaken, at least partially, about utilization of animal models in training. Even though professional surgeons and perfusionists already have extensive and ongoing clinical experience, SA uses a porcine model to train its contract surgeons, perfusionists, and other personnel in the specific procedures of cryonics.
There are shortcomings to this model. Contract clinicians are extremely skilled at specific procedures that must be done, but they are not cryonicists. For example, they don’t understand cerebral ischemic injury, its mechanisms, and significance in the context of cryonics. This can hypothetically lead to difficulties understanding and managing cases with moderate periods of warm ischemia that would ordinarily be “written off” in conventional medicine. Cryonicist involvement is still essential. However on balance, as measured by the speed and competent handling of standbys and transports in which they have been involved, participation of cardiovascular surgeons and perfusionists has been very positive. I hope we can continue to afford it.
Brian, when you say: “Mike, let’s be fair about this. Veterinary surgeons for thoracic surgery (after loss of Jerry Leaf) and chemists for running perfusion machines were also used during your tenure managing biomedical affairs at Alcor two decades ago. You trained and utilized lay people to do all kinds procedures that would ordinarily be done by medical or paramedical professionals, including establishing airways, mechanical circulation, and I.V. administration of fluids and medications. Manuals provided to lay students even included directions for doing femoral cutdown surgery,” you are either not reading what I wrote or are not being fair yourself. I not only acknowledge that this was so, I go so far as to say it is completely acceptable with the caveat that such people are instructed, vetted and mentored properly. I’ll go even further (as I have repeatedly, elsewhere) and state that the most highly qualified medical personnel can be dangerous, or even worse than useless unless they have been trained and mentored in human cryopreservation as a specialty. There’s nothing remarkable about this; no reasonable person would want a psychiatrist or a dermatologist doing bowel or brain surgery.
Some of the same people who performed very well in the past, and who are not medically qualified, are still at Alcor. The individual people, per se (in this instance), are not the problem. Rather, it’s the absence of the paradigm of cryonics as a professional medical undertaking that’s missing. The evidence for that is present in Alcor’s own case histories where highly qualified medical personnel do things like discontinue cardiopulmonary support on still warm patients in order to open their chests for cannulation (http://alcor.org/Library/pdfs/casereportA2435.pdf) or drill burr holes without irrigating the drilling site with chilled fluid to prevent regional heating of the brain under the burr. We are in complete agreement on these issues, as far as I can tell. Where we apparently differ is on how to resolve them.
The most interesting thing to me about this post from Brian is information it communicates for the first time. I follow Alcor’s announcements, read its magazine and track its public blog, as I necessarily must, so I am surprised to learn that “In Alcor’s O.R., Alcor is presently evaluating and training two board certified general surgeons to supplement the veterinary surgeon and neurosurgeon who have been used by Alcor for the past 15 years.” This is the kind of information that I would expect to see showcased in the organization’s literature and on its website, not disclosed here. This is the kind of thing that happens over and over and which degrades member confidence in the transparency of the organization. The next question is, who what, where and how? What are the details of this training? What kind of model is being used? What are the results to date?
Yes, SA does use pigs for training, but they use them in a non-survival mode—they get no robust feedback about errors, and no new insights. In fact, Brian might have mentioned that Alcor has used both animals and human cadavers in this manner, but I think he understood that the point I was making was about vetting your skills in an outcome driven fashion. That is not being done.
What’s even more disturbing is that there is virtually no visibility into the outcome from even these training operations. SA and Alcor are both essentially black boxes—there is no data, no performance reports, not even any reports or internal scoring of how well simulated cases proceeded. There’s at least one reason for this, and that is that there is no scoring system, internal or external. When things go wrong, well, it’s oops, we shouldn’t do that next time. And if that isn’t the case, then I’d love to hear it and I want to see the data to document it. That is an eminently reasonable request.
It’s great that Alcor can sometimes mount skilled perfusionists and highly skilled emergency vascular surgeons. But that isn’t the issue. The issue is the framework of knowledge, understanding and consistent performance that is absent. A surgeon or a perfusionist are, absent mentoring (internship), TOOLS to be used by and within that framework. If a man tells me he has the best glass cutting tool money can buy, but he doesn’t know how to cut glass, well, I’m going to be underwhelmed.
Alcor patient case reports are disorganized, inconsistent and erratic narratives that make objective evaluation impossible. No great genius is required to consistently collect and organize the key data that define how well a case went—or didn’t. The first cryonics case report was done by a 17 year old and a 22 year old graduate student:
http://www.lifepact.com/images/MTRV3N1.pdf
Examples of competently executed cases and case reports are available on Alcor’s own web site and the data captured, reduced and presented in these case reports was achieved using a tiny fraction of the financial and personnel resources Alcor currently has available:
http://www.alcor.org/Library/html/casereport8511.html
http://alcor.org/Library/html/fried.html
http://alcor.org/Library/html/casereportC2150.htm
http://alcor.org/Library/html/casereport8504.html
LOOK AT THESE CARE REPORTS CAREFULLY and then look at those on the Alcor website from 1997 forward: http://www.alcor.org/Library/index.html#casereports
I’m not trying to be contrary, difficult, or unreasonable. What I am asking for is core competence, not perfection. There is nothing either exotic or impossible in that. For example, Alcor has a Novametrix CO2SMO capnograph and respiratory function analyzer. The device can effortlessly capture and write to disk over 60 different respiratory parameters and it measures the end-tidal expired carbon dioxide (EtCO2) in the patient’s breath. The EtCO2 is the gold standard for determining how effective cardiopulmonary support (CPS) is. And if CPS is not effective, than that is both additional ischemic time the patient is experiencing and it is an opportunity to intervene and fix the situation. Or at worst, it offers the possibility of learning what caused inadequate CPS so that it might be avoided next time. The only skill required to use the device is to put the walnut sized sensor in line between the patient’s airway and the ventilator on the LUCAS CPR machine: http://frankshospitalworkshop.com/equipment/documents/pulse_oximeter/user_manuals/Novametrix_8100_-_User_manual.pdf That should make it easily possible to produce graphic data like this:
http://i293.photobucket.com/albums/mm55/mikedarwin1967/EtCO2inCPSgraph.png
THAT kind of data speaks definitively to how that patient was stabilized and transported, and in aggregate it provides a statistical dataset that speaks to the overall performance of the organization. It should be accompanied with graphic data for the patient’s TEMPERATURE, mean arterial pressure (until the time of arrest), the SpO2 (pulse ox) and other relevant data. This was done in the past by stressed out, sleep deprived, mostly volunteer people who were trained in-house. If that kind of data collection and accountability are considered “perfectionist,” or some kind of golden past no longer to be achieved, then I restate my opinion that something is terribly wrong.
Paramedics are taught that the single most important and most critical indication of the efficacy, or lack thereof, of CPR is the EtCO2 of the patient over time. Where is this data???? This is only one of countless examples I could use—but it is especially relevant because it is simple data to collect, and I know from Alcor’s recent case reports that they have a CO2SMO and they are actually using it on patients during the peri-arrest hospice period. Again, where is the data? That data is the ONLY way anyone has to evaluate the quality of cryonics cases because the patients cannot speak to us.
If you want to stop my criticisms, you need only show me the data and offer me and everyone else the opportunity to be reasonably certain it is valid and representative.
Your points are mostly well-taken, Mike. Not everything is better than it used to be. While the basic cryopreservation technology (vitrification) is better, and some important aspects of service delivery are better, Alcor does not have in-house expertise comparable to the era of you and Jerry Leaf. With the benefit of hindsight, I would say that people of such caliber willing to devote their life to cryonics are a historical anomaly not amenable to formulaic replication.
With respect to communications, the two new potential O.R. surgeons I spoke of were not a public announcement being withheld because Alcor is opaque and untrustworthy. Contact was made with them only within the past few weeks, as discussed at a recent public board meeting. I mentioned them only because your message seemed to imply that Alcor was content with the status quo.
I confess that you have a knack for twisting the knife of public criticism in ways that prompt me to “announce” things that aren’t ripe for announcement, and that lead to more questions and criticism. When will I learn? :)
“I follow Alcor’s announcements, read its magazine and track its public blog, as I necessarily must, so I am surprised to learn that “In Alcor’s O.R., Alcor is presently evaluating and training two board certified general surgeons to supplement the veterinary surgeon and neurosurgeon who have been used by Alcor for the past 15 years.” This is the kind of information that I would expect to see showcased in the organization’s literature and on its website, not disclosed here. This is the kind of thing that happens over and over and which degrades member confidence in the transparency of the organization. ”
In fact, I did mention the new surgeons, briefly, in an Alcor News post on April 2: http://www.alcor.org/blog/?p=2518 And similarly in the issue of Cryonics magazine now in production. Since we are just starting to work with these surgeons, it didn’t yet seem appropriate to report much more. We are continually reporting on just about everything. Your attempt to cast Alcor as non-transparent should be obviously false to anyone who looks at what we communicate.
I think I’m missing something here. As I understand it, you (Mike Darwin) have a great deal of experience and expertise in the actual practice of cryonics, as well as a lot of actionable recommendations. The current staff at Alcor (e.g., Max More) seem to take you seriously.
Is it a silly question to ask why you’re not working for Alcor?
Dig into Mike Darwin a little more. He was president of Alcor from 1983 to 1988.
Could you briefly explain or point to anything about info how CI’s approach is flawed?
EDIT: This comment helped: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/bk6/alcor_vs_cryonics_institute/6a2c
No, and that’s the trouble! Because, you see, if cryonics were like any other medical procedure, I’d simply point to the STATISTICS and to the MAIMED and DEAD patients. In fact, the errors and screw ups would be a huge public scandal, because people would have SUFFERED and DIED. Indeed, the patients themselves (who were not killed outright) would be hollering to high heaven via every available media outlet. Cryonics patients never complain because they can’t.
Because no cryonics patient suffers, or dies, or experiences any other OUTCOME of any kind, your only choice, if you want to understand differences in procedures, quality of care, and so on, is to delve into the complex, technical specifics.
You don’t have to learn the details of automotive engineering, metallurgy, and so on, to go pick out a good automobile. All of that huge body of technical and scientific knowledge is effectively INVISIBLE to you as a consumer (as well it should be) because you can look at PERFORMANCE as your guide to making a good buy. All that science and engineering gets reduced to miles per liter, road reliability and, of course, your comfort, convenience and safety while driving it! So “close” are the performance specs between automobiles that a significant part of what makes therm sell and out-compete each other is styling—just how the damn thing looks!
Think about that.
Perhaps Alcor should do the perfusions and freezing and CI chug away at the storage which needs safety and stability. About Mike’s or anyone’s judgment for that matter, it is a commonplace that no one person has good judgment in all areas. Alcor’s judgment in selection of personnel may be comparatively poor, but on the other hand I note few comments of a scientific or technical nature on his technical arguments, and as my own knowledge is rusty, I crave input from someone other than Mike of an exact nature, and not the dismissive “often fool people into believing that his judgment is better than it is” type of comment. I’m not fooled by any of this, but sorely lacking in the means to exercise my own intellect on the critical area of perfusion technology and I am becoming concerned that Mike’s technical postings are ignored in substance and detail because of a general lack of technical and scientific know-how in both organizations. At some point in the future if research on reanimation continues to be at or near zero BOTH organizations will be storing people whose information loss is approaching an upper asymptote of 100% regardless of the technology used to get them into the capsules in the first place.
This post from Max More is the kind of post that I would expect to see voted off of LessWrong. I have not had a substantive conversation with Max More about cryonics, let alone my personal position, psychology, desires or motivations in over 20 years. We did correspond recently, and I have asked Max for permission to make that complete correspondence, minus personal incidentals not material to cryonics, public. He has flatly refused. Why, I do not know, but I do know that that is the only substantive communication he and I have had in decades and that it is completely documented in writing. Prior to that, at least to my knowledge, our relationship was cordial and not marred by any disagreements or conflicts. Nor do we have any confidants or intimates in common. Thus, the question arises, how would Max know anything about whether I am “envious that I’m not running things”? As he says, he doesn’t know this, he can only speculate because he has refused to speak with me on these matters.
He then goes on to say something that I find remarkable to be left unchallenged here on LessWrong:
“That depth (of knowledge) and his most excellent writing skills often fool people into believing that his judgment is better than it is”
LessWrong, as I understand it, is a forum where people are mastering the craft and science of evaluating the logic and substance of the arguments put forth by people, including thinkers and writers here and elsewhere—not based on their style, cleverness of articulation, or their speculations. If anyone has questions about the assertions I make, feel free to ask for the evidence. We may not always agree on how to weight it, but the evidence will (hopefully) always be there, and it will be credible. Where I overstep or make a mistake, you will find me quick to acknowledge and apologize.
http://chronopause.com/index.php/2011/08/09/fucked/ and sequels have cost you more than one LWer’s opinion of your judgment because it matched exactly the sort of doomsaying which has cost contrarians literally billions of dollars over the past 4 years in bad bets against the dollar and US stocks (eg. Peter Thiel’s Clarium fund alone, or Dr. Doom for that matter). It’s not a surprise if they acknowledge your facts but question your judgment, which is the same sentiment Max is expressing.
My comments about economic, social and political matters don’t speak to how people should invest in the market, or to who will win the coming election. They speak to the general condition of the economy and the culture over the long haul. As I’ve observed in print before, plenty of people will get rich, and millions of people have gotten richer, despite the fact that diversion of wealth from the people who primarily produce it is at an all time high. I am the first to acknowledge that it has been fantastic advances in productivity that have made this possible. But that doesn’t make the reality go away that the system is increasingly thwarting innovation, overspending its resource base, and appropriating vast amounts of wealth which is used inefficiently, is wasted, or is actually used for contra-productive purposes.
All I have said, in addition to these fairly mundane observations, is that, sooner or later, something’s got to give. To some extent this has already happened in that many trillions of dollars of wealth have disappeared, or been reallocated to cover “bad actions” of various kinds. The situation in Europe is actually much worse than it is here, and if it becomes impossible to maintain solvency of large EU nations such Greece, Italy and Spain, then the effect will, again, be felt in the US and elsewhere.
What I have no way of knowing is how much “re-assignable” wealth is present in the system—and just as importantly, if it will be reassigned to cover “bad acts.” That’ difficult to assess wealth covers a huge range of goods and actions, from the quality of food people eat, to whether they use paper towels or go back to using rags! I’ve never claimed any special insight in those matters, and for good reason; because the data to make those kinds of “forecasts” simply isn’t available.
So, my position is very much like that of someone who warns that “crime doesn’t pay.” It doesn’t—not in the long run, because it is destructive of productivity, and destructive of effective human social interaction. But the BIG question is, what exactly constitutes the “long run?” That’s not a joke, and I am mindful that the Soviet Union ground on for 70 years. That’s an economist’s eternity, and then some. Pepsi Cola made millions betting that Soviet Russia would continue for decades. Do I think Fidelista Cuba is doomed? Absolutely. I also think it is a miserable, oppressive place. But I wouldn’t care to give any odds on how long it will survive.
Finally, if all the “non-contrarians” on this matter are concerned with or about is financial gain, regardless of the system’s characteristics or “meta-qualities,” then I have nothing to say to them and their disappointment in my “judgment” is as understandable as it is mutual.
--Isaac Deutscher