In your “active termite blackmail” example, you say that the “it’s too late” objection still applies. That might be true as regards this year’s termites, but you specified this recurs every year. It seems to me there’s plenty of room for this year’s decision to (causally) influence next year’s chances of termites; whether you pay this year seems like strong evidence about whether you will pay next year.
In your “active termite blackmail” example, you say that the “it’s too late” objection still applies. That might be true as regards this year’s termites, but you specified this recurs every year. It seems to me there’s plenty of room for this year’s decision to (causally) influence next year’s chances of termites; whether you pay this year seems like strong evidence about whether you will pay next year.
(EDIT: Fixed typo.)