My main point is that kalla724 is too pessimistic about cryonics. We don’t have a lot of answers to important questions and therefore can’t say with so much confidence (p = 10^-22) either way.
Saw a recent youtube with Aubrey De Grey where he expressed confidence in cryonics, and said a lot of recent progress had been made.
As for p=10^-22, that’s an unserious number. That can only come about analytically, premised on your assumptions. Ask yourself which assumptions, proven false, would overturn your conclusions. Are you confident in them with p>1-10^-22? I say no.
Jaynes had a nice practice in this regard. Always include a “something else I don’t know about” as an hypothesis in hypothesis testing, and assign some reasonable value for your ignorance of how the universe runs. That will keep your calculated confidence in your other hypotheses from reaching absurd levels.
Creationists will claim that it is impossible for evolution to have produced such and such feature in living creatures. Really? You’ve enumerated all the possible things that could happen in the universe, and understand the functioning of the universe so well, that you can rule it out and call it impossible? They don’t just believe in God, they believe in their own godhood.
Saw a recent youtube with Aubrey De Grey where he expressed confidence in cryonics, and said a lot of recent progress had been made.
As for p=10^-22, that’s an unserious number. That can only come about analytically, premised on your assumptions. Ask yourself which assumptions, proven false, would overturn your conclusions. Are you confident in them with p>1-10^-22? I say no.
Jaynes had a nice practice in this regard. Always include a “something else I don’t know about” as an hypothesis in hypothesis testing, and assign some reasonable value for your ignorance of how the universe runs. That will keep your calculated confidence in your other hypotheses from reaching absurd levels.
Creationists will claim that it is impossible for evolution to have produced such and such feature in living creatures. Really? You’ve enumerated all the possible things that could happen in the universe, and understand the functioning of the universe so well, that you can rule it out and call it impossible? They don’t just believe in God, they believe in their own godhood.
Do you have a link to the video?
ETA:
I agree. It’s not my number. It’s kalla724′s. It would be difficult for me to assign a precise numerical probability.
I understood it was the other guy’s number.
And right you are about a link for the De Brey video. Lazy of me. Starts at 13:40:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6eet44YacRg&feature=plcp