Most of those people do not know enough about how to produce lasting useful psychological change to know when a document or an author is actually worth the reader’s while.
The mere fact that you are human makes it much more probable than not that you are more skilled at self-deception and deception than at perceiving correctly the intrapersonal and interpersonal truths necessary to produce lasting change in another human being.
Probably true. But if you use those statistical facts about most people as an excuse to never listen to anyone, or even to one specific person, you’re setting yourself up for failure. How will you ever revise your probability estimate of one person’s knowledge or the general state of knowledge in a field, if you never allow yourself to encounter any evidence?
The financial success of your self-help practice is not significant evidence that you can produce lasting change in clients because again there is a plentiful supply of gullible self-help clients with money.
have you ever actually accompanied the client to a bar and observed how long it takes the client to achieve some objectively-valid sign of success (such as getting the woman’s phone number or getting the woman to follow the client out to his car)?
Is that your true rejection? If P.J. Eby said “why, yes I have,” would you change your views based on one anecdote? Since a randomized, double-blind trial is impossible (or at least financially impractical and incompatible with the self-help coach’s business model), what do you consider a reasonable standard of evidence?
I worry that your copious writings on this site will discourage contributions from those who have constructed their causal model of mental and social reality more carefully.
In my book, until I see very strong evidence to the contrary, every mental-health practitioner and self-help practitioner is with high probability deluded except those that constantly remind themselves of how little they know.
Given the vigorous dissent from you and others, I don’t think “discouraging contributions” is a likely problem! However, I personally would like to see discussion of specific claims of fact and (as much as possible) empirical evidence. A simple assertion of a probability estimate doesn’t help me understand your points of disagreement.
Since a randomized, double-blind trial is impossible (or at least financially impractical and incompatible with the self-help coach’s business model), what do you consider a reasonable standard of evidence?
A reasonable standard of evidence is established by what it takes to change your mind (ideally you’d need to work from elicited prior, which allows to check how reasonable your requirements are). If it’s double-blind trial that is required to change your mind, too bad it’s unavailable.
Probably true. But if you use those statistical facts about most people as an excuse to never listen to anyone, or even to one specific person, you’re setting yourself up for failure. How will you ever revise your probability estimate of one person’s knowledge or the general state of knowledge in a field, if you never allow yourself to encounter any evidence?
Is that your true rejection? If P.J. Eby said “why, yes I have,” would you change your views based on one anecdote? Since a randomized, double-blind trial is impossible (or at least financially impractical and incompatible with the self-help coach’s business model), what do you consider a reasonable standard of evidence?
Given the vigorous dissent from you and others, I don’t think “discouraging contributions” is a likely problem! However, I personally would like to see discussion of specific claims of fact and (as much as possible) empirical evidence. A simple assertion of a probability estimate doesn’t help me understand your points of disagreement.
A reasonable standard of evidence is established by what it takes to change your mind (ideally you’d need to work from elicited prior, which allows to check how reasonable your requirements are). If it’s double-blind trial that is required to change your mind, too bad it’s unavailable.