The popularity of anthropic reasoning varies, but it may be worth mentioning that historical data available to us here on Earth may be -completely meaningless- from a disaster probability perspective. Your being here to consider disasters rules out certain disasters having happened at all; it also rules out certain disasters happening at certain times.
It could also make the data meaningless in the other direction; it may be that intelligence is extremely unlikely without near-miss cataclysms allowing additional evolutionary passes/​additional time spent in evolution at certain evolutionary stages; the shortest route to large-scale life may be an evolutionary dead end as far as intelligence goes.
The popularity of anthropic reasoning varies, but it may be worth mentioning that historical data available to us here on Earth may be -completely meaningless- from a disaster probability perspective. Your being here to consider disasters rules out certain disasters having happened at all; it also rules out certain disasters happening at certain times.
It could also make the data meaningless in the other direction; it may be that intelligence is extremely unlikely without near-miss cataclysms allowing additional evolutionary passes/​additional time spent in evolution at certain evolutionary stages; the shortest route to large-scale life may be an evolutionary dead end as far as intelligence goes.