They still cannot predict themselves, so the theory that “in principle they are predictable” still feels wrong.
Predicting humans is really difficult (when they are thinking; not when they act on reflex or habit), because very small changes in input can bring significantly different output. Trying to predict oneself is trying to predict oneself predicting oneself etc. It is like trying to understand what a difficult recursive function does.
We also have psychological fear related to predictability. Imagine what would it be like if another person would be able to precisely predict your reaction. They would be able to choose an action that together with your reaction brings them maximum utility, usually at your expense. It feels safer to insist that your actions are absolutely unpredictable. This is not related only to philosophy; in the same way people claim that advertising never works on them, or they could never become cult members. People love to pretend that there is absolutely no way to influence them. Paradoxically they often blame their failures on the environment; but they mean only economical and similar influences of environment, never psychological; at most they admit the environment has bad psychological influence on their neighbors, which in turn creates “real” problems for them. Some people even deny they could do things unconsciously; they pretend everything is a rational decision.
It is worth noting that people don’t insist on having free will all the time in the same way. It is possible to convince people that they have no free will when they sleep, or when they are unconscious. It would be also possible to argue that when people are acting on habit or on addiction or in hypnosis, then their free will is weakened. And those are situations when it is easier to predict them. Having free will means having a possibility of choice that no one (including the person doing the choice) can predict. It feels like the choice is not based on laws, because a lawful choice would be predictable. It is a confusion between “I don’t see a law” and “there is no law”.
They still cannot predict themselves, so the theory that “in principle they are predictable” still feels wrong.
Predicting humans is really difficult (when they are thinking; not when they act on reflex or habit), because very small changes in input can bring significantly different output. Trying to predict oneself is trying to predict oneself predicting oneself etc. It is like trying to understand what a difficult recursive function does.
We also have psychological fear related to predictability. Imagine what would it be like if another person would be able to precisely predict your reaction. They would be able to choose an action that together with your reaction brings them maximum utility, usually at your expense. It feels safer to insist that your actions are absolutely unpredictable. This is not related only to philosophy; in the same way people claim that advertising never works on them, or they could never become cult members. People love to pretend that there is absolutely no way to influence them. Paradoxically they often blame their failures on the environment; but they mean only economical and similar influences of environment, never psychological; at most they admit the environment has bad psychological influence on their neighbors, which in turn creates “real” problems for them. Some people even deny they could do things unconsciously; they pretend everything is a rational decision.
It is worth noting that people don’t insist on having free will all the time in the same way. It is possible to convince people that they have no free will when they sleep, or when they are unconscious. It would be also possible to argue that when people are acting on habit or on addiction or in hypnosis, then their free will is weakened. And those are situations when it is easier to predict them. Having free will means having a possibility of choice that no one (including the person doing the choice) can predict. It feels like the choice is not based on laws, because a lawful choice would be predictable. It is a confusion between “I don’t see a law” and “there is no law”.