This started out interesting—a name for a potentially-useful concept. I didn’t follow why it was “upside decay”, though, instead of just “skewed-left distribution” or “truncated outcomes”. The change-over-time element that “decay” implies to me is missing in the description.
And then it jumps into weird geopolitical issues and a very tenuous concept of “virtue”. Lost me.
Thanks for your thoughtful response! I chose China as an example because it concisely illustrates the contrast—China dominates all the segments that don’t need upside, but struggles for those that do. It also explains the narrow definition of virtue I use. It assumes a moderate knowledge of current affairs which is definitely something that’s boring for a lot of people, but I’m personally more familiar with China and less familiar with other possible examples like cryptocurrencies or AGI.
The problem with using examples that are as political as China is layed out in Politics is the Mindkiller.
If you want to make a claim like “China is a particularly clear example of the causal mechanism of upside decay. Upside decay is preceded by a lack of virtue”. It would make more sense to use a historic example that actually showed that upside decay followed the lack in virtue instead of merely making a prediction that you think that China will suffer upside decay in the future.
This started out interesting—a name for a potentially-useful concept. I didn’t follow why it was “upside decay”, though, instead of just “skewed-left distribution” or “truncated outcomes”. The change-over-time element that “decay” implies to me is missing in the description.
And then it jumps into weird geopolitical issues and a very tenuous concept of “virtue”. Lost me.
Thanks for your thoughtful response! I chose China as an example because it concisely illustrates the contrast—China dominates all the segments that don’t need upside, but struggles for those that do. It also explains the narrow definition of virtue I use. It assumes a moderate knowledge of current affairs which is definitely something that’s boring for a lot of people, but I’m personally more familiar with China and less familiar with other possible examples like cryptocurrencies or AGI.
The problem with using examples that are as political as China is layed out in Politics is the Mindkiller.
If you want to make a claim like “China is a particularly clear example of the causal mechanism of upside decay. Upside decay is preceded by a lack of virtue”. It would make more sense to use a historic example that actually showed that upside decay followed the lack in virtue instead of merely making a prediction that you think that China will suffer upside decay in the future.