The Manhattan project was a strategic failure because it greatly helped the Soviets build atomic weapons. The U.S. military would have been far better off if it more carefully chose who could work on nuclear weapons development, even if this added several years to how long it took them to get atomic weapons.
So, analogizing to a future AGI project, you’re saying that having more “ideologically incorrect” people in the research community can indeed harm a potentially dangerous project.
If the leaders of the unsafe project exclude more “ideologically incorrect” ppeople, then this will add to the time required for development.
On the other hand, if there are more people with the “incorrect” leak-prone and these are not excluded (possibly because they never made their ideology public), then a potentially beneficial leak is more likely.
The role of espionage in the Soviet nuclear weapons program has been greatly exaggerated. While spies did accelerate their progress, it’s pretty clear that they could have developed nuclear weapons entirely on their own. I don’t think things would have been vastly different if the only information they had was that the US dropped a nuclear weapon on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
The Manhattan project was a strategic failure because it greatly helped the Soviets build atomic weapons. The U.S. military would have been far better off if it more carefully chose who could work on nuclear weapons development, even if this added several years to how long it took them to get atomic weapons.
So, analogizing to a future AGI project, you’re saying that having more “ideologically incorrect” people in the research community can indeed harm a potentially dangerous project.
If the leaders of the unsafe project exclude more “ideologically incorrect” ppeople, then this will add to the time required for development.
On the other hand, if there are more people with the “incorrect” leak-prone and these are not excluded (possibly because they never made their ideology public), then a potentially beneficial leak is more likely.
Yes
The role of espionage in the Soviet nuclear weapons program has been greatly exaggerated. While spies did accelerate their progress, it’s pretty clear that they could have developed nuclear weapons entirely on their own. I don’t think things would have been vastly different if the only information they had was that the US dropped a nuclear weapon on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.