What is your estimate of how much of Hong Kong’s current wealth and success it would preserve if it were unable to make use of technology developed after, say, 1990?
Two answers, under different assumptions about what you’re asking. If HK had no post-1990 tech and neither did the rest of the world, then it would maintain about 95% of its wealth. If HK was stuck in 1990 tech while the rest of the world wasn’t then it could maintain about 85% of its wealth—it would still be richer than most of Europe. If this seems high to you, consider that a basic idea of economics suggests that countries will use trade to make up for their relative deficiencies and maximize their comparative advantage, and HK is an global center of trade.
Well, the snippet from the article compares current technological advances to the first era of industrialisation, so they’re probably thinking 100-200% range.
They would be unable to do business in any real way with the rest of the world. They’d be communicating by landline phones, couriers, and carrier pidgeons. They’d just manage to get a 80486DX at a whopping 20MHz.
Some internet, but no HTTP, and likely no modern standards. Just how do you expect them to be a global center of trade in a world economy where their competition has modern computers, communications, and logistics?
Throw out their financial services industry and import/export businesses.
The advantage they’re left with is the unique relation they have with China, where they have access to the market but don’t have to play by the same rules. There’s always value in legal privileges. Much of the world economy is driven by such privileges. But that’s not an argument against the value and power of technology to create wealth.
What is your estimate of how much of Hong Kong’s current wealth and success it would preserve if it were unable to make use of technology developed after, say, 1990?
Two answers, under different assumptions about what you’re asking. If HK had no post-1990 tech and neither did the rest of the world, then it would maintain about 95% of its wealth. If HK was stuck in 1990 tech while the rest of the world wasn’t then it could maintain about 85% of its wealth—it would still be richer than most of Europe. If this seems high to you, consider that a basic idea of economics suggests that countries will use trade to make up for their relative deficiencies and maximize their comparative advantage, and HK is an global center of trade.
I asked mostly because I wanted a concrete reference point for the claim you were making; it’s easier to avoid talking past each other that way.
So, the last 20-25 years of technological development accounts for 5% of Hong Kong’s current wealth? Sure, that seems plausible enough.
What sorts of numbers do you think the people who talk about the enormous benefits technology delivers have in mind for that question?
Well, the snippet from the article compares current technological advances to the first era of industrialisation, so they’re probably thinking 100-200% range.
Gotcha. Yeah, the idea that we’ve doubled or tripled our real wealth in the last 25 years seems implausible.
I upvoted the whole chain of comments leading here because it shows how a rational discussion should go: Establish reference points. Elaborate. Agree!
I did the same. I wonder if it would be a good idea to document such cases as Examples of Best Practices.
They would be unable to do business in any real way with the rest of the world. They’d be communicating by landline phones, couriers, and carrier pidgeons. They’d just manage to get a 80486DX at a whopping 20MHz.
Some internet, but no HTTP, and likely no modern standards. Just how do you expect them to be a global center of trade in a world economy where their competition has modern computers, communications, and logistics?
Throw out their financial services industry and import/export businesses.
The advantage they’re left with is the unique relation they have with China, where they have access to the market but don’t have to play by the same rules. There’s always value in legal privileges. Much of the world economy is driven by such privileges. But that’s not an argument against the value and power of technology to create wealth.
They’d have to buy that tech including training and support. And as a trading center they could.