I agree. I find myself in an epistemic state somewhat like: “I see some good arguments for X. I can’t think of any particular counter-argument that makes me confident that X is false. If X is true, it implies there are high-value ways of spending my time that I am not currently doing. Plenty of smart people I know/read believe X; but plenty do not”
It sounds like that should maybe be enough to coax me into taking action about X. But the problem is that I don’t think it’s that hard to put me in this kind of epistemic state. Eg, if I were to read the right blogs, I think I could be brought into that state for a bunch of different values of X. A few of the top of my head that seem plausible:
Climate change
Monetary policy/hyperinflation
Animal suffering
So I don’t feel super trusting of my epistemic state. I guess I feel a sort of epistemic learned helplessness, where I am suspicious of smart bloggers’ ability to get me to think an issue is important and worth dedicating my life to.
Not totally sure how to resolve this, though I suppose it would involve some sort of “going off on my own and actually thinking deeply about what it should take to convince me”
I feel the same. I think there are just a lot of problems which one could try to solve/solve which are increasing the good in the world. The difference between alignment and the rest seems to be the probability at which humans will go extinct is much higher.
I agree. I find myself in an epistemic state somewhat like: “I see some good arguments for X. I can’t think of any particular counter-argument that makes me confident that X is false. If X is true, it implies there are high-value ways of spending my time that I am not currently doing. Plenty of smart people I know/read believe X; but plenty do not”
It sounds like that should maybe be enough to coax me into taking action about X. But the problem is that I don’t think it’s that hard to put me in this kind of epistemic state. Eg, if I were to read the right blogs, I think I could be brought into that state for a bunch of different values of X. A few of the top of my head that seem plausible:
Climate change
Monetary policy/hyperinflation
Animal suffering
So I don’t feel super trusting of my epistemic state. I guess I feel a sort of epistemic learned helplessness, where I am suspicious of smart bloggers’ ability to get me to think an issue is important and worth dedicating my life to.
Not totally sure how to resolve this, though I suppose it would involve some sort of “going off on my own and actually thinking deeply about what it should take to convince me”
I feel the same. I think there are just a lot of problems which one could try to solve/solve which are increasing the good in the world. The difference between alignment and the rest seems to be the probability at which humans will go extinct is much higher.