I agree that actually offering money would require incentives to avoid, essentially, sybil attacks. But making sure people don’t make “noise predictions” isn’t a useful goal—those noise predictions don’t really affect the overall metaculus prediction much, since it weights past accuracy.
I agree that actually offering money would require incentives to avoid, essentially, sybil attacks. But making sure people don’t make “noise predictions” isn’t a useful goal—those noise predictions don’t really affect the overall metaculus prediction much, since it weights past accuracy.