You can also get a fair number of points for just predicting the community prediction — but you won’t get that many because as a question’s point value increases (which it does with the number of predictions), more and more of the score is relative rather than absolute.
I think this is actually backwards (the value goes up as the question’s point value increases), because the relative score is the component responsible for the “positive regardless of resolution” payoffs. Explanation and worked example here: https://blog.rossry.net/metaculus/
I think this is actually backwards (the value goes up as the question’s point value increases), because the relative score is the component responsible for the “positive regardless of resolution” payoffs. Explanation and worked example here: https://blog.rossry.net/metaculus/