The question of how much more infectious B.1.1.7 is is pretty useless without also referencing a generation time estimate.
Generally true, but in using contact tracing data the English analysis is answering the “how much more infectious” question directly rather than relying on inferring from relative growth rates and estimated generation times.
The 37% error does revise my estimate a bit for how confident I should be that it is <50% (although even correcting that it is probably still under 50% according to Zvi) but I still expect it to end up that side of the equation. If I was answering that survey now I’d be at 20% or so.
Generally true, but in using contact tracing data the English analysis is answering the “how much more infectious” question directly rather than relying on inferring from relative growth rates and estimated generation times.
The 37% error does revise my estimate a bit for how confident I should be that it is <50% (although even correcting that it is probably still under 50% according to Zvi) but I still expect it to end up that side of the equation. If I was answering that survey now I’d be at 20% or so.