As someone who is involved in both Metaculus and the Good judgement project, I think it’s worth noting that Zvi’s criticism of Metaculus—that points are given just for participating, so that making a community average guess gets you points—applies to Good Judgement Inc’s predictions by superforecasters in almost exactly the same way—the superforecasters are paid for a combination of participation and their performance, so that guessing the forecast median earns them money. (GJI does have a payment system for superforecasters which is more complex than this, and I probably am not allowed to talk about—but the central point remains true.)
As someone who is involved in both Metaculus and the Good judgement project, I think it’s worth noting that Zvi’s criticism of Metaculus—that points are given just for participating, so that making a community average guess gets you points—applies to Good Judgement Inc’s predictions by superforecasters in almost exactly the same way—the superforecasters are paid for a combination of participation and their performance, so that guessing the forecast median earns them money. (GJI does have a payment system for superforecasters which is more complex than this, and I probably am not allowed to talk about—but the central point remains true.)
It also applies to the stock market where buying an index fund that just invests in everything leads to fairly regular positive returns.