Probability is in both the mind and the universe, and neither approach is very useful in isolation. What is the objective of the OP?
To reduce perceived existential risk, build radio transmitters. This has negligible effect on the actual risk of a great filter event.
To reduce actual existential risk, work on nuclear disarmament, asteroid detection, permanent space settlement, friendly AI, etc.
Let me put it this way: of the possible great filter scenarios, how many causally depend to any significant degree on the construction of radio transmitters? I can think of a few weird outlandish, Hollywood inspired possibilities (e.g. aliens that purposefully hide all their activity from our sight, yet are nearby and wait for the signal to come destroy us. positive outcomes are also imaginable, though equally unlikely). Since the probability of such cases are approximately zero, when successfully build a radio transmitter, it tells us approximately nothing. We already know the outcome, so we might as well update on it now.
Then again, once we built the radio transmitter all those same threats of nuclear war, asteroid impacts, and UFAI still exist. We haven’t lessened the actual chance of humanity wiping itself out. You may build your radio transmitter, only to have it destroyed or powered off five years later in the next nuclear war, cometary impact, or by an UFAI that doesn’t see its merit.
Probability is in both the mind and the universe, and neither approach is very useful in isolation. What is the objective of the OP?
To reduce perceived existential risk, build radio transmitters. This has negligible effect on the actual risk of a great filter event.
To reduce actual existential risk, work on nuclear disarmament, asteroid detection, permanent space settlement, friendly AI, etc.
Let me put it this way: of the possible great filter scenarios, how many causally depend to any significant degree on the construction of radio transmitters? I can think of a few weird outlandish, Hollywood inspired possibilities (e.g. aliens that purposefully hide all their activity from our sight, yet are nearby and wait for the signal to come destroy us. positive outcomes are also imaginable, though equally unlikely). Since the probability of such cases are approximately zero, when successfully build a radio transmitter, it tells us approximately nothing. We already know the outcome, so we might as well update on it now.
Then again, once we built the radio transmitter all those same threats of nuclear war, asteroid impacts, and UFAI still exist. We haven’t lessened the actual chance of humanity wiping itself out. You may build your radio transmitter, only to have it destroyed or powered off five years later in the next nuclear war, cometary impact, or by an UFAI that doesn’t see its merit.