According to this study, he does okay, but I’m not impressed with their methodology. For some reason I can’t copy/paste the relevant section of the PDF, but they discuss him explicitly on page 15. They looked at “a random sample” of his columns and television appearances (whatever that means) and found 17 predictions, of which 14 were right, 1 was wrong, and 1 was hedged.
Only 17 predictions? I thought we did science.
“He is, after all, a Nobel-prize winning economist.”
I agree that that study is unimpressive, in a number of ways. (And it’s comparing his accuracy with that of other pundits, rather than with that of past-Krugman.)
According to this study, he does okay, but I’m not impressed with their methodology. For some reason I can’t copy/paste the relevant section of the PDF, but they discuss him explicitly on page 15. They looked at “a random sample” of his columns and television appearances (whatever that means) and found 17 predictions, of which 14 were right, 1 was wrong, and 1 was hedged.
Only 17 predictions? I thought we did science.
“He is, after all, a Nobel-prize winning economist.”
I agree that that study is unimpressive, in a number of ways. (And it’s comparing his accuracy with that of other pundits, rather than with that of past-Krugman.)