Does an asteroid perform optimization? We can predict its path years in advance, so how “low-probability” was the collision?
It does, because in the counterfactual world where the asteroid didn’t exist, the collision would not have happened. The “low probability” refers to some prior distribution. Once the collision has happen, it has probability 1.
Suppose you view optimization as “pushing the world into low-probability states.”
That is the source of your confusion. Because once an event has happened, it has probability 1. But the event will happen, so it already has probability 1.
The time-bound perspective on this is: a sufficiently powerful predictor can anticipate the effect of the optimization. But it still requires the optimizer to actually perform the optimization, through its actions/existence.
The timeless perspective on this is: the mere existence of the optimizer shifts (or rather, has already shifted) the probabilities in the world where it exists towards the states it optimizes for, compared to the counterfactual world where that optimizer does not exist.
Does the bible perform optimization (insofar as the world looks different in the counterfactual without it)? Or does the “credit” go to its authors? (Same with an imaginary being everyone believes in)
Credit does not have to add up to 100%. Each of the links in a chain is 100% responsible for chain maintaining its integrity. If it would fail, the entire chain would fail. If a chain has 10 links, that adds up to 1000%.
It does, because in the counterfactual world where the asteroid didn’t exist, the collision would not have happened.
The “low probability” refers to some prior distribution. Once the collision has happen, it has probability 1.
That is the source of your confusion. Because once an event has happened, it has probability 1. But the event will happen, so it already has probability 1.
The time-bound perspective on this is: a sufficiently powerful predictor can anticipate the effect of the optimization. But it still requires the optimizer to actually perform the optimization, through its actions/existence.
The timeless perspective on this is: the mere existence of the optimizer shifts (or rather, has already shifted) the probabilities in the world where it exists towards the states it optimizes for, compared to the counterfactual world where that optimizer does not exist.
Credit does not have to add up to 100%. Each of the links in a chain is 100% responsible for chain maintaining its integrity. If it would fail, the entire chain would fail. If a chain has 10 links, that adds up to 1000%.