HA, please include justifications with your Olympian judgments. Thanks.
Will, probabilities are states of partial information, not objective properties of the problem. Unless you have reason to believe the data are wrong in a particular direction, your corrected estimate including meta-uncertainty is no different from the original as betting odds.
HA, please include justifications with your Olympian judgments. Thanks.
Will, probabilities are states of partial information, not objective properties of the problem. Unless you have reason to believe the data are wrong in a particular direction, your corrected estimate including meta-uncertainty is no different from the original as betting odds.