I endorse the reasoning of not listing out obstacles explicitly; if you’re wrong, why talk, if you’re right, you’re not helping.
I can only see two remaining obstacles (arguably two families, so not sure if I’m missing some of yours of if my categories are a little too broad). One is pretty obvious, and have been mentioned already. The second one is original AFAICT, and pretty close to « solve the alignment problem ». In that case, would you still advice keeping my mouth shut, or would you think that’s an exception to your recommendation? Your answer will impact what I say or don’t say, at least on LW.
If you think you’ve got a great capabilities insight, I think you PM me or somebody else you trust and ask if they think it’s a big capabilities insight.
I can only see two remaining obstacles (arguably two families, so not sure if I’m missing some of yours of if my categories are a little too broad). One is pretty obvious, and have been mentioned already. The second one is original AFAICT, and pretty close to « solve the alignment problem ». In that case, would you still advice keeping my mouth shut, or would you think that’s an exception to your recommendation? Your answer will impact what I say or don’t say, at least on LW.
If you think you’ve got a great capabilities insight, I think you PM me or somebody else you trust and ask if they think it’s a big capabilities insight.