I think your meta level observation seems right. Also, I would add that bottleneck problems in either capabilities or alignment are often bottlenecked on resources like serial time.
(My timelines, even taking all this into account, are only like 10 years—I don’t think these obstacles are so insurmountable that they buy decades.)
I think your meta level observation seems right. Also, I would add that bottleneck problems in either capabilities or alignment are often bottlenecked on resources like serial time.
(My timelines, even taking all this into account, are only like 10 years—I don’t think these obstacles are so insurmountable that they buy decades.)