Ha! Yes, I had this thought as well. I actually messaged Yudkowsky, warning him that I was considering posting this, on the off chance that a) the Conspiracy existed, b) he was among their ranks, and c) he wanted me to not stir up this possibility. I waited for a response for a period of time consistent with my estimation of the probability of the Conspiracy existing in an incarnation that would meaningfully object.
Conditional on a Conspiracy existing, the probability that they’d reveal themselves to an unknown person asking via e-mail has to be pretty low. What you obviously should have done instead is to brainstorm for five minutes on how you would really recruit new members if you were the Conspiracy, or alternately on what courses of action you could take to benefit the Conspiracy if it existed. But, like I said, it’s too late now- instead, you’ve signaled that you’re clever enough to come up with an idea but not disciplined enough to think it through properly, and that’s precisely the type of member a Bayesian Conspiracy would wish to avoid.
If there is such a Conspiracy, you’ve already failed the most obvious membership test.
First Rule …. p(A|X) =p(X|A)p(A) / (p(X|A)p(A) + p(X|~A)*p(~A))
Second Rule You DO NOT talk about Bayes Club.
Ha! Yes, I had this thought as well. I actually messaged Yudkowsky, warning him that I was considering posting this, on the off chance that a) the Conspiracy existed, b) he was among their ranks, and c) he wanted me to not stir up this possibility. I waited for a response for a period of time consistent with my estimation of the probability of the Conspiracy existing in an incarnation that would meaningfully object.
Conditional on a Conspiracy existing, the probability that they’d reveal themselves to an unknown person asking via e-mail has to be pretty low. What you obviously should have done instead is to brainstorm for five minutes on how you would really recruit new members if you were the Conspiracy, or alternately on what courses of action you could take to benefit the Conspiracy if it existed. But, like I said, it’s too late now- instead, you’ve signaled that you’re clever enough to come up with an idea but not disciplined enough to think it through properly, and that’s precisely the type of member a Bayesian Conspiracy would wish to avoid.
Indeed, to the extent that members of the Conspiracy reason similarly, they do not need to communicate at all.
Your chastisement is well taken. Thank you.