I would wager that >50% of readers would agree on a ranking of those five sentences from weakest/most uncertain to strongest/most confident
I notice that I rank 2 of these statements differently depending on a subtle distinction of what exactly is being ranked.
Between
“I claim that passe muraille is just a variant of tic-tac.”
“Passe muraille is just a variant of tic-tac.”
The first one indicates the speaker is consciously choosing to plant a flag that they intend to defend. The second one suggests the speaker believes no defense will be necessary.
“Believing no defense will be necessary” seems like stronger subjective confidence from the speaker, but “I claim” means they’re wagering some reputation on being correct; it’s “stronger” in the sense of being harder to walk back.
(Though there’s actually a bunch of possible reasons for believing no defense will be necessary, including reasons related to your audience or the format of the conversation that have nothing to do with how well-justified the thing is.)
I notice that I rank 2 of these statements differently depending on a subtle distinction of what exactly is being ranked.
Between
“I claim that passe muraille is just a variant of tic-tac.”
“Passe muraille is just a variant of tic-tac.”
The first one indicates the speaker is consciously choosing to plant a flag that they intend to defend. The second one suggests the speaker believes no defense will be necessary.
“Believing no defense will be necessary” seems like stronger subjective confidence from the speaker, but “I claim” means they’re wagering some reputation on being correct; it’s “stronger” in the sense of being harder to walk back.
(Though there’s actually a bunch of possible reasons for believing no defense will be necessary, including reasons related to your audience or the format of the conversation that have nothing to do with how well-justified the thing is.)
This exact ambiguity is what caused me to soften the wager down so low and add the hedge in the next clause. =)