It doesn’t seem useful to compare MLP to furries without knowing the prior probability that a particular member of the population is a member of either fandom, and to get that prior probability, we need to have reasonably accurate data about the sizes of those communities.
The most prominent social media site for bronies is, arguably, FIMFiction.net; its counterpart for furries is likely FurAffinity.net. (And both sites are similar in that they have a focus on the creation of creative content, while also allowing for journals, commentary, and similar interactions.) To the best of my knowledge, FimFiction currently has about 160,000 user accounts; FurAffinity has around 750,000.
If the results of the two questions turn out to be that there are significantly more than 1⁄4 the number of bronies as furries, then it’s at least arguable that bronies are more heavily concentrated in the LW community than would be expected if there was no correlation between rationality and ponydom. It may not be /strong/ evidence, possibly even only on the order of a couple of decibans, but it seems most likely to be above zero decibans.
To the best of my knowledge, FimFiction currently has about 160,000 user accounts; FurAffinity has around 750,000.
The number of furries seems dwarfed by the number of bronies; most estimates seem to suggest at least ten times as many bronies as furries. Compare attendance at the largest furcons and the largest bronycons (it doesn’t match the 10x number for a number of reasons, but it suggests the direction).
Okay, we have the largest creative sites being tilted around 4:1 in favor of furries, and the largest cons’ latest attendances being 2:1 in favor of bronies; does LW’s furry-to-brony ratio fall within that range, or outside it?
does LW’s furry-to-brony ratio fall within that range, or outside it?
So, the ratio might have problems when people fall in both groups; looking at the Brony Herd Census it looks like 17% of respondents were furries, which makes the 10 to 1 estimate calculated other ways seem less likely. (I think most of the estimates I saw for furries predated MLP growing, and it seems likely that the communities grow off each other.)
It doesn’t seem useful to compare MLP to furries without knowing the prior probability that a particular member of the population is a member of either fandom, and to get that prior probability, we need to have reasonably accurate data about the sizes of those communities.
The most prominent social media site for bronies is, arguably, FIMFiction.net; its counterpart for furries is likely FurAffinity.net. (And both sites are similar in that they have a focus on the creation of creative content, while also allowing for journals, commentary, and similar interactions.) To the best of my knowledge, FimFiction currently has about 160,000 user accounts; FurAffinity has around 750,000.
If the results of the two questions turn out to be that there are significantly more than 1⁄4 the number of bronies as furries, then it’s at least arguable that bronies are more heavily concentrated in the LW community than would be expected if there was no correlation between rationality and ponydom. It may not be /strong/ evidence, possibly even only on the order of a couple of decibans, but it seems most likely to be above zero decibans.
The number of furries seems dwarfed by the number of bronies; most estimates seem to suggest at least ten times as many bronies as furries. Compare attendance at the largest furcons and the largest bronycons (it doesn’t match the 10x number for a number of reasons, but it suggests the direction).
Okay, we have the largest creative sites being tilted around 4:1 in favor of furries, and the largest cons’ latest attendances being 2:1 in favor of bronies; does LW’s furry-to-brony ratio fall within that range, or outside it?
So, the ratio might have problems when people fall in both groups; looking at the Brony Herd Census it looks like 17% of respondents were furries, which makes the 10 to 1 estimate calculated other ways seem less likely. (I think most of the estimates I saw for furries predated MLP growing, and it seems likely that the communities grow off each other.)