This question bugged me from last year’s survey, but I’m not sure if my objections are valid. Consider a subset of this question: “What is the probability that Bayesian mathematical reasoning was created by a supranatural entity?” It seems… outside the domain, a little bit? Like a question, “What is the probability that Bayesian mathematics is true?”- what would it mean for this to be false? Which is to say, I don’t know whether probability estimates are capable of a certain degree of recursive self-analysis, and asking about the origins of Bayesianism may be in that class.
This question bugged me from last year’s survey, but I’m not sure if my objections are valid. Consider a subset of this question: “What is the probability that Bayesian mathematical reasoning was created by a supranatural entity?” It seems… outside the domain, a little bit? Like a question, “What is the probability that Bayesian mathematics is true?”- what would it mean for this to be false? Which is to say, I don’t know whether probability estimates are capable of a certain degree of recursive self-analysis, and asking about the origins of Bayesianism may be in that class.