Why do even unusually numerate people fear illness, car accidents, and bogeymen, and take safety measures, but not bother to look up statistics on the relative risks?
Disease, motor vehicles, and humans are very dangerous. Currently, everyone dies eventually(1), and almost everyone who dies is killed by one of these three things. The CDC has charts about this. See 10 Leading Causes of Death by Age Group, United States – 2007. Boxes that aren’t one of the Big Three Of Doom are extremely rare. This chart breaks down the unintentional injuries. As you can see, motor vehicles dominate. I was surprised at first that “Unintentional Poisoning” came in second, especially among the 35-54 age group, then I realized that it’s probably drug overdoses, not people thinking that vitamins are candy. After that, it’s Unintentional Fall among older people(2).
Do people fear the wrong diseases, wrong motor vehicles, and wrong humans? Sure. But at least the categories are correct.
I suggest “plane crashes”.
If you are cryopreserved, you are dead, but with strange aeons even death may die. (Information-theoretic death is eternal, though.)
As for the rest of the post, which is asking very good questions, when I became a programmer I started with (c) “Find ourselves strongly, intrinsically curious about information that would help us achieve our goal;”, bootstrapped up to skill and power, and then figured out what goals I could achieve with it. (In no particular order, improving the state of the art at my employer and the field as a whole, working on my projects at home, and funding my retirement.) I consciously decided to teach myself a real programming language (the wrong one, although it worked out in the end), but I didn’t have to mess with my reward gradients or motivational systems. At most, I had to throw away mini-goals that were interesting at the time, but later became trivial or pointless. For me, learning how to do neat stuff was its own reward and its own motivation. After I worked my way out of the depths of newbie confusion, I realized that I could work on problems that previously, or to anyone else, would have seemed like a terrible slog. (My work and hobbies involve staring at angle brackets all day, and not the HTML kind.)
I don’t know if that can work for anyone else. It’s just my data point.
I agree plane crash concerns are generally more irrational. But I mean… take me, for example. I know plane crashes and sharks are mostly negligible while car accidents and humans present larger risks; that much information reached me be accident. But, even though I regularly go out of my way to “reduce my risk from car accidents”, I haven’t ever bothered to look up info on e.g. which lane is safest to drive in, or how accident rates scale with sleep deprivation, or which freeways near my home present the largest risk. I’m motivated to do activities I associate with driving safety, but not to systematically estimate and reduce the risks. If a book was published on how to actually reduce my risk, I might read it, but more because it fits my identity as an aspiring rationalist and an aspiring goal-oriented person than than to, you know, actually reduce my risk of death. Which is the point.
wrt sleep deprivation, according to a DOT driver’s manual, driving without having slept in 18 hours is equivalent in risk to driving with a .08 blood alcohol level. Driving without having slept in 24 hours corresponds to a .10 blood alcohol level.
I choose a live style that lets me limit my driving severely. Might be easier in Europe than the US.
If you must drive, then doing a training in safe driving can help a bit. It trains some reflexes for emergency situations. Also avoid to drive at the specific times when most accidents happen. Which here is Friday and Saturday night, when the drunk drive home after the disco, and the few first days of icy weather each year.
Also one should have a up-to date car, with Air-bags.
Safety is for the most part a play with statistics, but it is really easy to reduce your risk below the average. And then you will never find you what kind of troubles you managed to avoid.
I choose a live style that lets me limit my driving severely.
This is a good approach. It’s not the primary reason I choose a life style that minimizes car usage but it is definitely an additional benefit of arranging for a largely car free existence and one I am conscious of.
It also helps financially, and I picked my current room so i could walk to work in 10-20 minutes. I would hate to have to commute each day. But those preferences might change with different living situations.
The general idea is just: if it is dangerous, do it less and learn how to do it well.
It also helps financially, and I picked my current room so i could walk to work in 10-20 minutes. I would hate to have to commute each day. But those preferences might change with different living situations.
Yes, a primary reason for aiming for a lifestyle where I have a reasonably short (30 minute) walk into work is my dislike of commuting by car. I figured out early on that it made me miserable (and wasted a lot of time) but I’ve subsequently seen a fair bit of evidence that the common trade off of a longer commute for a larger house is a poor one for most people.
The general idea is just: if it is dangerous, do it less and learn how to do it well.
I don’t always follow this rule. Some activities I enjoy are relatively dangerous (snowboarding for example) so I just aim to do them as safely as possible but I don’t necessarily try and do less of dangerous activities if I enjoy them. It’s a win-win to do less of dangerous activities I don’t particularly enjoy however.
even though I regularly go out of my way to “reduce my risk from car accidents”
Why? Car accident death rate is 1/10000 per year for your age/gender and probably substantially less for you personally under ordinary circumstances; do the present-value-of-time math.
And now you know why there’s a Culture ship named Death and Gravity.
I always assumed that “Gravity” was replacing the “Taxes” part of “nothing is inevitable except Death and Taxes”, because the Culture had clearly dispensed with taxes.
Disease, motor vehicles, and humans are very dangerous. Currently, everyone dies eventually(1), and almost everyone who dies is killed by one of these three things. The CDC has charts about this. See 10 Leading Causes of Death by Age Group, United States – 2007. Boxes that aren’t one of the Big Three Of Doom are extremely rare. This chart breaks down the unintentional injuries. As you can see, motor vehicles dominate. I was surprised at first that “Unintentional Poisoning” came in second, especially among the 35-54 age group, then I realized that it’s probably drug overdoses, not people thinking that vitamins are candy. After that, it’s Unintentional Fall among older people(2).
Do people fear the wrong diseases, wrong motor vehicles, and wrong humans? Sure. But at least the categories are correct.
I suggest “plane crashes”.
If you are cryopreserved, you are dead, but with strange aeons even death may die. (Information-theoretic death is eternal, though.)
And now you know why there’s a Culture ship named Death and Gravity.
As for the rest of the post, which is asking very good questions, when I became a programmer I started with (c) “Find ourselves strongly, intrinsically curious about information that would help us achieve our goal;”, bootstrapped up to skill and power, and then figured out what goals I could achieve with it. (In no particular order, improving the state of the art at my employer and the field as a whole, working on my projects at home, and funding my retirement.) I consciously decided to teach myself a real programming language (the wrong one, although it worked out in the end), but I didn’t have to mess with my reward gradients or motivational systems. At most, I had to throw away mini-goals that were interesting at the time, but later became trivial or pointless. For me, learning how to do neat stuff was its own reward and its own motivation. After I worked my way out of the depths of newbie confusion, I realized that I could work on problems that previously, or to anyone else, would have seemed like a terrible slog. (My work and hobbies involve staring at angle brackets all day, and not the HTML kind.)
I don’t know if that can work for anyone else. It’s just my data point.
I agree plane crash concerns are generally more irrational. But I mean… take me, for example. I know plane crashes and sharks are mostly negligible while car accidents and humans present larger risks; that much information reached me be accident. But, even though I regularly go out of my way to “reduce my risk from car accidents”, I haven’t ever bothered to look up info on e.g. which lane is safest to drive in, or how accident rates scale with sleep deprivation, or which freeways near my home present the largest risk. I’m motivated to do activities I associate with driving safety, but not to systematically estimate and reduce the risks. If a book was published on how to actually reduce my risk, I might read it, but more because it fits my identity as an aspiring rationalist and an aspiring goal-oriented person than than to, you know, actually reduce my risk of death. Which is the point.
wrt sleep deprivation, according to a DOT driver’s manual, driving without having slept in 18 hours is equivalent in risk to driving with a .08 blood alcohol level. Driving without having slept in 24 hours corresponds to a .10 blood alcohol level.
I choose a live style that lets me limit my driving severely. Might be easier in Europe than the US. If you must drive, then doing a training in safe driving can help a bit. It trains some reflexes for emergency situations. Also avoid to drive at the specific times when most accidents happen. Which here is Friday and Saturday night, when the drunk drive home after the disco, and the few first days of icy weather each year. Also one should have a up-to date car, with Air-bags. Safety is for the most part a play with statistics, but it is really easy to reduce your risk below the average. And then you will never find you what kind of troubles you managed to avoid.
This is a good approach. It’s not the primary reason I choose a life style that minimizes car usage but it is definitely an additional benefit of arranging for a largely car free existence and one I am conscious of.
It also helps financially, and I picked my current room so i could walk to work in 10-20 minutes. I would hate to have to commute each day. But those preferences might change with different living situations. The general idea is just: if it is dangerous, do it less and learn how to do it well.
Yes, a primary reason for aiming for a lifestyle where I have a reasonably short (30 minute) walk into work is my dislike of commuting by car. I figured out early on that it made me miserable (and wasted a lot of time) but I’ve subsequently seen a fair bit of evidence that the common trade off of a longer commute for a larger house is a poor one for most people.
I don’t always follow this rule. Some activities I enjoy are relatively dangerous (snowboarding for example) so I just aim to do them as safely as possible but I don’t necessarily try and do less of dangerous activities if I enjoy them. It’s a win-win to do less of dangerous activities I don’t particularly enjoy however.
Why? Car accident death rate is 1/10000 per year for your age/gender and probably substantially less for you personally under ordinary circumstances; do the present-value-of-time math.
I always assumed that “Gravity” was replacing the “Taxes” part of “nothing is inevitable except Death and Taxes”, because the Culture had clearly dispensed with taxes.
Possible, but the Culture is also no longer subject to mandatory gravity (drones float), or mandatory biological death.