Same here. The reason I think so low of the self proclaimed Bayesianism is the sort of thinking where someone sees someone ugly accused and they’re like, ha, I am going to be more rational than everyone else today, by ticking my estimate of the guilt up because they’re ugly. Completely ignorant that it even makes a difference to the way you should apply Bayes rule that the police and the witnesses and the like had already picked the suspect with this sort of prejudice.
It seems to me that knowing only a little (and/or being bad at applied math) is kind of a pre-requisite for the level of enthusiasm involved in the use of it as a movement name. It’s exciting to see all those bits of evidence and see yourself one-upping all those classy educated people that are dead set against use of those bits of evidence, or who even seen to use them in the completely wrong way. It’s even more fun to do that with friends.
You know about little math, and it makes a huge difference to everything, that’s exciting.
Or you spent years studying and/or working and all that math almost never matters—almost any evidence that’s not overwhelmingly strong is extremely confounded with what’s already been considered and/or with the chain of events bringing something to your attention.
Without looking at evidence I would guess disproportionately so.
Same here. The reason I think so low of the self proclaimed Bayesianism is the sort of thinking where someone sees someone ugly accused and they’re like, ha, I am going to be more rational than everyone else today, by ticking my estimate of the guilt up because they’re ugly. Completely ignorant that it even makes a difference to the way you should apply Bayes rule that the police and the witnesses and the like had already picked the suspect with this sort of prejudice.
Yes, knowing just a little about Bayesianism can make you less rational.
It seems to me that knowing only a little (and/or being bad at applied math) is kind of a pre-requisite for the level of enthusiasm involved in the use of it as a movement name. It’s exciting to see all those bits of evidence and see yourself one-upping all those classy educated people that are dead set against use of those bits of evidence, or who even seen to use them in the completely wrong way. It’s even more fun to do that with friends.
You know about little math, and it makes a huge difference to everything, that’s exciting.
Or you spent years studying and/or working and all that math almost never matters—almost any evidence that’s not overwhelmingly strong is extremely confounded with what’s already been considered and/or with the chain of events bringing something to your attention.