I say,
99.8% likely this is an upset outsider baiting for reactions in order to gauge our degree of cultishness.
0.1% likely this a sincere believer.
0.1% likely this is Eliezer messing with our heads.
I feel like “in order to gauge our cultishness” is too specific/conjunctive for that much of your probability mass.
Yeah, it just seems like a low-effort troll to me.
That adds up to 100%. You need to leave room for other things, like they’re trolling us for the fun of it.
I say,
99.8% likely this is an upset outsider baiting for reactions in order to gauge our degree of cultishness.
0.1% likely this a sincere believer.
0.1% likely this is Eliezer messing with our heads.
I feel like “in order to gauge our cultishness” is too specific/conjunctive for that much of your probability mass.
Yeah, it just seems like a low-effort troll to me.
That adds up to 100%. You need to leave room for other things, like they’re trolling us for the fun of it.