What it means for someone to be rational doesn’t really have a good generic. There’s some intuition behind it that seems ok. But even that is simply a bad premise to use. It doesn’t apply to most humans. Assuming even an approximate degree of rationality is probably not a justified assumption. You seem to be making a point that you are willing to update to conclude that someone isn’t that rational. But whether you are willing to update or not isn’t terrible relevant. I can assign a low probability to the sun rising each day and every time it does rise update accordingly. This isn’t a good approach.
On more than one occassion, contrastingly, I have made plain-language statements which you have failed to parse or have taken to mean very strongly different things than they otherwise did.
This suggests that we have different ideas of what constitutes plain language or have severely different communication styles. In such contexts it helps to just spell everything out explicitly. It does seem that there’s a similar problem going both ways. Look for example at how you seem to have interpreted my comment about not assuming rationality in others. In this context it seems that you seem to think that I parsed your statement as you insisting that everyone is rational. In contrast if you reread what I wrote you’ll see that I understood you perfectly and was objecting to the assumption as a starting assumption whether or not you would then update given evidence. The fact that as discussed in the other piece of this thread you totally missed my remark about fusion power suggests that there are some serious communication gaps in this conversation.
Not directly, but resveratrol itself is mimicing the effects of caloric restriction. Once again, this is something we had both already agreed upon being the case for this dialogue.
I’m not sure where we agreed to this claim. Resveratrol has features that do look very similar to those caloric restriction, but I don’t see anywhere we agreed to the claim that it is mimicking caloric restriction. Could you point to me where we agreed to that? I’ve just looked over the thread and I don’t see anywhere where I made that statement Since you’ve stated that you are likely not going to be continuing this conversation, can someone else who is reading this comment if they thought I said so and if so point where I did so? It is possible that I said something that is being interpreted that way. I’ve tried rereading the conversation to find that point and there’s nothing that seems to do that. But this could very well be due to the illusion of transparency in reading my own words.
Your notional rejection of the research done by geriontologists on the behaviors of aging as being relevant to the question of how aging occurs.
So this seems again to be a failure to communicate between us. I didn’t reject that; their data is very important to how aging occurs. There data as it exists simply doesn’t rule out the possibility I outlined to you for very old ages That’s not the same thing at all.
We are. You, however, are introducing the assumption—unecessary and unwarranted based on the currently available datasets for this dialogue—that overconfidence is yet relevant to the conversation.
We simply haven’t gotten anywhere that justifies the belief or assumption of overconfidence.
Ok. This is actually a major issue: the outside view for human predictions about technology is that they are almost always overconfident when they make predictions. Humans in general have terrible overconfidence problems. Even if one had absolutely no specific issue with a given technology one would want to move any prediction in the direction of being less confident. We don’t need to go anywhere to justify a suspicion of overconfidence. For an individual who is marginally aware of human cognitive biases, that should be the default setting.
What it means for someone to be rational doesn’t really have a good generic. There’s some intuition behind it that seems ok. But even that is simply a bad premise to use. It doesn’t apply to most humans. Assuming even an approximate degree of rationality is probably not a justified assumption. You seem to be making a point that you are willing to update to conclude that someone isn’t that rational. But whether you are willing to update or not isn’t terrible relevant. I can assign a low probability to the sun rising each day and every time it does rise update accordingly. This isn’t a good approach.
This suggests that we have different ideas of what constitutes plain language or have severely different communication styles. In such contexts it helps to just spell everything out explicitly. It does seem that there’s a similar problem going both ways. Look for example at how you seem to have interpreted my comment about not assuming rationality in others. In this context it seems that you seem to think that I parsed your statement as you insisting that everyone is rational. In contrast if you reread what I wrote you’ll see that I understood you perfectly and was objecting to the assumption as a starting assumption whether or not you would then update given evidence. The fact that as discussed in the other piece of this thread you totally missed my remark about fusion power suggests that there are some serious communication gaps in this conversation.
I’m not sure where we agreed to this claim. Resveratrol has features that do look very similar to those caloric restriction, but I don’t see anywhere we agreed to the claim that it is mimicking caloric restriction. Could you point to me where we agreed to that? I’ve just looked over the thread and I don’t see anywhere where I made that statement Since you’ve stated that you are likely not going to be continuing this conversation, can someone else who is reading this comment if they thought I said so and if so point where I did so? It is possible that I said something that is being interpreted that way. I’ve tried rereading the conversation to find that point and there’s nothing that seems to do that. But this could very well be due to the illusion of transparency in reading my own words.
So this seems again to be a failure to communicate between us. I didn’t reject that; their data is very important to how aging occurs. There data as it exists simply doesn’t rule out the possibility I outlined to you for very old ages That’s not the same thing at all.
Ok. This is actually a major issue: the outside view for human predictions about technology is that they are almost always overconfident when they make predictions. Humans in general have terrible overconfidence problems. Even if one had absolutely no specific issue with a given technology one would want to move any prediction in the direction of being less confident. We don’t need to go anywhere to justify a suspicion of overconfidence. For an individual who is marginally aware of human cognitive biases, that should be the default setting.