It couldn’t go very far, technology wasn’t ready. It probably still isn’t ready, but until that’s the case, we wouldn’t expect any progress anyway, so its absence says little
Right. I completely agree with that. The issue is then how do we know that things are so much more advanced now that Logos can say that he “cannot conceive of a worldline resultant from the here-and-now that would not include the datapoint that within fifty years from today, antiagapics research had extended human lifespans by at least another fifty years.” I’m not arguing that his projection doesn’t look likely from what we know. But the estimate of it being so likely as for alternatives to be inconceivable seems indicate an extreme and unjustified level of confidence.
Right. I completely agree with that. The issue is then how do we know that things are so much more advanced now that Logos can say that he “cannot conceive of a worldline resultant from the here-and-now that would not include the datapoint that within fifty years from today, antiagapics research had extended human lifespans by at least another fifty years.” I’m not arguing that his projection doesn’t look likely from what we know. But the estimate of it being so likely as for alternatives to be inconceivable seems indicate an extreme and unjustified level of confidence.