The question is whether it would be possible to ban further research and stop progress (open, universally accessible and buildable-upon progress), in time for AGI to be still far away enough that an isolated group in a basement will have no chance of achieving it on its own.
If by “basement” you mean “anywhere, working in the interests of any organization that wants to gain a technology advantage over the rest of the world,” then sure, I agree that this is a good question. So what do you think the answer is?
I have no idea! I am not a specialist of any kind in AI development. That is why I posted in the Stupid Questions thread asking “has MIRI considered this and made a careful analysis?” instead of making a top-level post saying “MIRI should be doing this”. It may seem that in the subthread I am actively arguing for strategy (b), but what I am doing is pushing back against what I see as insufficient answers on such an important question.
The question is whether it would be possible to ban further research and stop progress (open, universally accessible and buildable-upon progress), in time for AGI to be still far away enough that an isolated group in a basement will have no chance of achieving it on its own.
If by “basement” you mean “anywhere, working in the interests of any organization that wants to gain a technology advantage over the rest of the world,” then sure, I agree that this is a good question. So what do you think the answer is?
I have no idea! I am not a specialist of any kind in AI development. That is why I posted in the Stupid Questions thread asking “has MIRI considered this and made a careful analysis?” instead of making a top-level post saying “MIRI should be doing this”. It may seem that in the subthread I am actively arguing for strategy (b), but what I am doing is pushing back against what I see as insufficient answers on such an important question.
So… what do you think the answer is?
If you want my answers, you’ll need to humor me.