How do people construct priors?
They make stuff up, mostly, from what I see here. Some even pretend that “epsilon” is a valid prior.
Is it worth trying to figure out how to construct better priors?
Definitely. Gwern recommends the prediction book as a practice to measure and improve your calibration.
They make stuff up, mostly, from what I see here. Some even pretend that “epsilon” is a valid prior.
Definitely. Gwern recommends the prediction book as a practice to measure and improve your calibration.