I meant “independent person” as in, someone not part of the biggest labs
(Admittedly, not all papers are equally insightful, and maybe OpenAI & DeepMind’s papers are more insightful than average, but I don’t think that’s a strong enough effect to make them account for “most” AI insights.)
Since most researchers are outside of big labs, they’re going to publish more papers. I’m not convinced that means much of anything. I could see usefulness vary by factors of well over 100. Some papers might even negative utility. I think all of the impressive AI’s we’ve seen, without any real exception, have come out of big research labs.
Also, I believe you’re assuming that research will continue to be open. I think it’s more likely that it won’t be, although not 95%.
But ultimately I’m out of my depth on this discussion.
I meant “independent person” as in, someone not part of the biggest labs
Since most researchers are outside of big labs, they’re going to publish more papers. I’m not convinced that means much of anything. I could see usefulness vary by factors of well over 100. Some papers might even negative utility. I think all of the impressive AI’s we’ve seen, without any real exception, have come out of big research labs.
Also, I believe you’re assuming that research will continue to be open. I think it’s more likely that it won’t be, although not 95%.
But ultimately I’m out of my depth on this discussion.