Any good idea can be enough for a successful start-up. AGI is extremely narrow compared to the entire space of good ideas.
But we’re not comparing the probability of “a successful start-up will be created” vs. the probability of “an AGI will be created” in the next x years, we’re comparing the probability of “an AGI will be created by a large organization” vs. the probability of “an AGI will be created by a single person on his laptop” given that an AGI will be created.
Without the benefit of hindsight, is PageRank and reusable rockets any more obvious than the hypothesized AGI key insight? If someone who had no previous experience working in aeronautical engineering—a highly technical field—can out-innovate established organizations like Lockheed Martin, why wouldn’t the same hold true for AGI? If anything, the theoretical foundations of AGI is less well-established and the entry barrier lower by comparison.
But we’re not comparing the probability of “a successful start-up will be created” vs. the probability of “an AGI will be created” in the next x years, we’re comparing the probability of “an AGI will be created by a large organization” vs. the probability of “an AGI will be created by a single person on his laptop” given that an AGI will be created.
Without the benefit of hindsight, is PageRank and reusable rockets any more obvious than the hypothesized AGI key insight? If someone who had no previous experience working in aeronautical engineering—a highly technical field—can out-innovate established organizations like Lockheed Martin, why wouldn’t the same hold true for AGI? If anything, the theoretical foundations of AGI is less well-established and the entry barrier lower by comparison.