abramdemski comments on Kelly Bet or Update?

[abramdemski]

I’m not sure of the math OTTOMH but isn’t fractional Kelly equivalent to having some credence that your model is correct and some credence that the market is correct?

Ah, seems promising!

So, with my credence in my own model being x, and my credence in the market being y, $p-\frac{q}{b/a}$ becomes:

$xp+ya-\frac{xq+yb}{b/a}$

$=xp+ya-xqa/b-ya$

$=x(p-qa/b)+ya-ya$

$=x(p-\frac{q}{b/a})$

So, yeah, makes sense.