Thanks for giving details of the disagreements you are considering. The only community with norms even remotely conducive to large bets of this type is probably the poker community? There is a lot of big betting on ‘props’. I don’t know how often they bet on factual disagreements. But there have been a lot of big bets on random stuff like ‘can X person do Y pushups’ or ’does Scott think God exists. For a certain well known player doing pushups and a well known Scott both bets are real.
Thanks for giving details of the disagreements you are considering. The only community with norms even remotely conducive to large bets of this type is probably the poker community? There is a lot of big betting on ‘props’. I don’t know how often they bet on factual disagreements. But there have been a lot of big bets on random stuff like ‘can X person do Y pushups’ or ’does Scott think God exists. For a certain well known player doing pushups and a well known Scott both bets are real.