I think the LessWrong community and particularly the LessWrong elites are probably too skilled for these games. We need a harder game. After checking the diplomatic channel as a civilian I was pretty convinced that there were going to be no nukes fired, and I ignored the rest of the game based on that. I also think the answer “don’t nuke them” is too deeply-engrained in our collective psyche for a literal Petrov Day ritual to work like this. It’s fun as a practice of ritually-not-destroying-the-world though.
I will remind you that this stance was also the vibe going into Petrov Day 2020, when someone commented the following.
Right now it seems like the Nash equilibrium is pretty stable at everyone not pressing the button. Maybe we can simulate adding in some lower-priority yet still compelling pressure to press the button, analogous to Petrov’s need to follow orders or the US’s need to prevent Russians from stationing nuclear missiles in Cuba.
But I agree I would like for many participants to be able to expect to make a difficult ethical decision, I’m interested in games that set this up more reliably.
I wouldn’t be so sure. As the article said, Petrov preregistered an intention for what to do during the downtime that would have resulted in the reporting an incoming strike with ~50% probability if we hadn’t decided to completely skip that reporting period. Given people’s (IMO reasonable) commitment to counterstrike, I am not sure how that would have played out.
I think the LessWrong community and particularly the LessWrong elites are probably too skilled for these games. We need a harder game. After checking the diplomatic channel as a civilian I was pretty convinced that there were going to be no nukes fired, and I ignored the rest of the game based on that. I also think the answer “don’t nuke them” is too deeply-engrained in our collective psyche for a literal Petrov Day ritual to work like this. It’s fun as a practice of ritually-not-destroying-the-world though.
I will remind you that this stance was also the vibe going into Petrov Day 2020, when someone commented the following.
When indeed the site was taken down because of an adversarial third-party.
But I agree I would like for many participants to be able to expect to make a difficult ethical decision, I’m interested in games that set this up more reliably.
I wouldn’t be so sure. As the article said, Petrov preregistered an intention for what to do during the downtime that would have resulted in the reporting an incoming strike with ~50% probability if we hadn’t decided to completely skip that reporting period. Given people’s (IMO reasonable) commitment to counterstrike, I am not sure how that would have played out.
I think the game is sufficiently difficult.