That part made me think. If I see bright minds falling in this trap, does blindness goes with importance of the belief for that person? I would say yes I think. As if that’s where we tend to make more « mistakes. that can behave as ratchets of the mind ». Thanks for the insight!
that also perhaps are controversial
Same exercise: if I see bright minds falling in this trap, does blindness goes with controversial beliefs? Definitely! Almost by definition actually.
each year write down the most likely story you can think of that would make it be wrong
I don’t feel I get this part as well as the formers. Suppose I hold the lab leak view, then notice it’s both controversial (« these morons can’t update right »), and much more important to me (« they don’t get how important it is for the safety of everyone »). What should I write?
“most likely story you can think of that would make it be wrong”—that can be the hard part. For investments its sometimes easy—just they fail to execute, their competitors get better, or their disruption is itself disrupted. Before the debate I put Lab leak at say 65-80%, now more like <10%. The most likely story/reason I had for natural origin being correct (before I saw the debate) was that the host was found, and the suspicious circumstances where a result of an incompetent coverup and general noise/official lies mostly by the CCP around this.
Well I can’t say for sure that LL was wrong of course, but I changed my mind for a reason I didn’t anticipate—i.e. a high quality debate that was sufficiently to my understanding.
For some other things its hard to come up with a credible story at all, i.e. AGW being wrong I would really struggle to do.
That part made me think. If I see bright minds falling in this trap, does blindness goes with importance of the belief for that person? I would say yes I think. As if that’s where we tend to make more « mistakes. that can behave as ratchets of the mind ». Thanks for the insight!
Same exercise: if I see bright minds falling in this trap, does blindness goes with controversial beliefs? Definitely! Almost by definition actually.
I don’t feel I get this part as well as the formers. Suppose I hold the lab leak view, then notice it’s both controversial (« these morons can’t update right »), and much more important to me (« they don’t get how important it is for the safety of everyone »). What should I write?
“most likely story you can think of that would make it be wrong”—that can be the hard part. For investments its sometimes easy—just they fail to execute, their competitors get better, or their disruption is itself disrupted.
Before the debate I put Lab leak at say 65-80%, now more like <10%. The most likely story/reason I had for natural origin being correct (before I saw the debate) was that the host was found, and the suspicious circumstances where a result of an incompetent coverup and general noise/official lies mostly by the CCP around this.
Well I can’t say for sure that LL was wrong of course, but I changed my mind for a reason I didn’t anticipate—i.e. a high quality debate that was sufficiently to my understanding.
For some other things its hard to come up with a credible story at all, i.e. AGW being wrong I would really struggle to do.