The simple illustration is geometry; defending a territory requires 360 degrees * 90 degrees of coverage, whereas the attacker gets to choose their vector.
But attacking a territory requires long supply lines, whereas defenders are on their home turf.
But defending a territory requires constant readiness, whereas attackers can make a single focused effort on a surprise attack.
But attacking a territory requires mobility for every single weapons system, whereas defenders can plug their weapons straight into huge power plants or incorporate mountains into their armor.
But defending against violence requires you to keep targets in good repair, whereas attackers have entropy on their side.
But attackers have to break a Schelling point, thereby risking retribution from otherwise neutral third parties, whereas defenders are less likely to face a coalition.
But defenders have to make enough of their military capacity public for the public knowledge to serve as a deterrent, whereas attackers can keep much of their capabilities a secret until the attack begins.
But attackers have to leave their targets in an economically useful state and/or in an immediately-militarily-crippled state for a first strike to be profitable, whereas defenders can credibly precommit to purely destructive retaliation.
I could probably go on for a long time in this vein.
Overall I’d still say you’re more likely to be right than wrong, but I have no confidence in the accuracy of that.
None of these are hypotheticals, you realize. The prior has been established through a long and brutal process of trial and error.
Any given popular military authority can be read, but if you’d like a specialist in defense try Vaubon. Since we are talking about AI, the most relevant (and quantitative) information is found in the work done on nuclear conflict; Von Neumann did quite a bit of work aside from the bomb, including coining the phrase Mutually Assured Destruction. Also of note would be Herman Kahn.
But attacking a territory requires long supply lines, whereas defenders are on their home turf.
But defending a territory requires constant readiness, whereas attackers can make a single focused effort on a surprise attack.
But attacking a territory requires mobility for every single weapons system, whereas defenders can plug their weapons straight into huge power plants or incorporate mountains into their armor.
But defending against violence requires you to keep targets in good repair, whereas attackers have entropy on their side.
But attackers have to break a Schelling point, thereby risking retribution from otherwise neutral third parties, whereas defenders are less likely to face a coalition.
But defenders have to make enough of their military capacity public for the public knowledge to serve as a deterrent, whereas attackers can keep much of their capabilities a secret until the attack begins.
But attackers have to leave their targets in an economically useful state and/or in an immediately-militarily-crippled state for a first strike to be profitable, whereas defenders can credibly precommit to purely destructive retaliation.
I could probably go on for a long time in this vein.
Overall I’d still say you’re more likely to be right than wrong, but I have no confidence in the accuracy of that.
None of these are hypotheticals, you realize. The prior has been established through a long and brutal process of trial and error.
Any given popular military authority can be read, but if you’d like a specialist in defense try Vaubon. Since we are talking about AI, the most relevant (and quantitative) information is found in the work done on nuclear conflict; Von Neumann did quite a bit of work aside from the bomb, including coining the phrase Mutually Assured Destruction. Also of note would be Herman Kahn.