I’ve decided to once again leave my prediction for when human level AGI will arrive unchanged. That is, I give it a log-normal distribution with a mean of 2028 and a mode of 2025, under the assumption that nothing crazy happens like a nuclear war. I’d also like to add to this prediction that I expect to see an impressive proto-AGI within the next 8 years. By this I mean a system with basic vision, basic sound processing, basic movement control, and basic language abilities, with all of these things being essentially learnt rather than preprogrammed. It will also be able to solve a range of simple problems, including novel ones.
Well, it’s been 8 years; how close are ML researchers to a “proto-AGI” with the capabilities listed? (embarassingly, I have no idea what the answer is)
As far as I know no one’s tried to build a unified system with all of those capacities, but we do seem to have rudimentary learned versions of each of the capacities on their own.
Gato seems to qualify for this, and is surprisingly close to this prediction. My guess is if you had really tried, you could have made something that qualified for the thing he was thinking about in 2019, though nobody was trying super hard.
Posted by Shane Legg on 31 December, 2011:
Well, it’s been 8 years; how close are ML researchers to a “proto-AGI” with the capabilities listed? (embarassingly, I have no idea what the answer is)
As far as I know no one’s tried to build a unified system with all of those capacities, but we do seem to have rudimentary learned versions of each of the capacities on their own.
Gato seems to qualify for this, and is surprisingly close to this prediction. My guess is if you had really tried, you could have made something that qualified for the thing he was thinking about in 2019, though nobody was trying super hard.
I believe Gato (November 2022, so 3 years after the prediction) can be seen as confirmation of this: https://www.deepmind.com/publications/a-generalist-agent