I don’t think this is true in every domain. If the domain is bridge building, for example, I have some confidence that the domain experts have built a bridge or two and know what it takes to keep them up and running; if they didn’t, they wouldn’t have a job. That is, bridge building is a domain in which you are forced to repeatedly make contact with reality, and that keeps your thoughts about bridge building honest. Many domains have this property, but not all of them do. Philosophy is a domain that I suspect may not have this making-contact-with-reality property (philosophers are not paid to resolve philosophical problems, they are paid to write philosophy papers, which means they’re actually incentivized not to settle questions); some parts of martial arts might be another, and some parts of psychotherapy might be a third, just so it doesn’t sound like I’m picking on philosophy uniquely.
I agree with the signs of the effects you suggest re. philosophers being incentivized to disagree, but that shouldn’t explain (taking the strongest example of my case, two-boxing), why the majority of philosophers take the objectively less plausible view.
But plausibly LWers have the same sort of effects explaining their contra-philosophy-experts consensus. Also I don’t see how the LWers are more likely to be put in touch with reality re. these questions than philosophers.
I don’t think this is true in every domain. If the domain is bridge building, for example, I have some confidence that the domain experts have built a bridge or two and know what it takes to keep them up and running; if they didn’t, they wouldn’t have a job. That is, bridge building is a domain in which you are forced to repeatedly make contact with reality, and that keeps your thoughts about bridge building honest. Many domains have this property, but not all of them do. Philosophy is a domain that I suspect may not have this making-contact-with-reality property (philosophers are not paid to resolve philosophical problems, they are paid to write philosophy papers, which means they’re actually incentivized not to settle questions); some parts of martial arts might be another, and some parts of psychotherapy might be a third, just so it doesn’t sound like I’m picking on philosophy uniquely.
I agree with the signs of the effects you suggest re. philosophers being incentivized to disagree, but that shouldn’t explain (taking the strongest example of my case, two-boxing), why the majority of philosophers take the objectively less plausible view.
But plausibly LWers have the same sort of effects explaining their contra-philosophy-experts consensus. Also I don’t see how the LWers are more likely to be put in touch with reality re. these questions than philosophers.
Fair point.