(These are not relevant to the skill of the week. I misinterpreted the instructions. I’ll leave this comment up, though, because I enjoyed these games/exercises and others might as well.)
1) Play Wits and Wagers. This is an unoriginal suggestion and probably not eligible for a reward, but nevertheless it’s a fun, socially rewarding, accessible, large collection of Fermi questions about which Bayesian updates based on vague real-world knowledge can be readily applied.
Variation 1 Add the additional step that every player must explain at least one reason that they think influences the odds on estimates of the answer.
Variation 2 To practice resistance to anchoring (assuming that’s even possible), in each round one player is first told the question privately, then makes a public estimate. Then the other players hear the question and answer normally. After all estimates are revealed, the first player is allowed to “back out” and retrieve his or her ante.
2) In the Austin meetup, and later as a private game between my SO and I, we played my own variant of the 2-4-6 puzzle. I broadened the scope to “a sequence of any three words” in fairness to people who just don’t like math, and renamed the game Trilogy. One player picks a rule simple enough that it can be applied fairly and consistently; this can be subjective, of course, so remind players that the goal is to make the game fun and somewhat challenging, not fiendish. That player then gives an example sequence of three words that pass (or fail) the test. Then the guessing player guesses sequences of three words and the rulemaker tells whether the sequences pass or fail the rule. It can be opened up to competitive group play by letting each player propose a test sequence, one at a time, in turn. The player may guess the rule instead of proposing a test sequence, and if correct he or she wins, and if incorrect he or she loses.
(These are not relevant to the skill of the week. I misinterpreted the instructions. I’ll leave this comment up, though, because I enjoyed these games/exercises and others might as well.)
1) Play Wits and Wagers. This is an unoriginal suggestion and probably not eligible for a reward, but nevertheless it’s a fun, socially rewarding, accessible, large collection of Fermi questions about which Bayesian updates based on vague real-world knowledge can be readily applied.
Variation 1 Add the additional step that every player must explain at least one reason that they think influences the odds on estimates of the answer.
Variation 2 To practice resistance to anchoring (assuming that’s even possible), in each round one player is first told the question privately, then makes a public estimate. Then the other players hear the question and answer normally. After all estimates are revealed, the first player is allowed to “back out” and retrieve his or her ante.
2) In the Austin meetup, and later as a private game between my SO and I, we played my own variant of the 2-4-6 puzzle. I broadened the scope to “a sequence of any three words” in fairness to people who just don’t like math, and renamed the game Trilogy. One player picks a rule simple enough that it can be applied fairly and consistently; this can be subjective, of course, so remind players that the goal is to make the game fun and somewhat challenging, not fiendish. That player then gives an example sequence of three words that pass (or fail) the test. Then the guessing player guesses sequences of three words and the rulemaker tells whether the sequences pass or fail the rule. It can be opened up to competitive group play by letting each player propose a test sequence, one at a time, in turn. The player may guess the rule instead of proposing a test sequence, and if correct he or she wins, and if incorrect he or she loses.