The pure mathematics of voting systems, being mathematics, exists likewise, but its application to the physical world, like all applied mathematics, is contingent on the real world conforming to its ontology and its axioms.
I never would have disputed this. But you’re being binary: basically “either we know it or we don’t”. It’s not that you’re wrong, it’s that your categories aren’t useful in practice. You’re implicitly bucketing things you’re 99.9% sure about with things that you’re 20% sure about.
In contrast, my view is that you should assign some credence to your set of assumptions being true. And given that, we can say that your credence in a valid logical argument’s conclusion must be at least as high as your credence in its assumptions. (It’s higher because, of course, there can be other sound logical arguments that support your conclusion.)
If you’re restricting your knowledge to known mathematical truths, you’re not going to make any government policies at all.
it seems vanishingly unlikely that the Presidency or the US will even exist in 100,000 years
Conceded, but that’s not a substantive issue to my argument. The electoral system of an office that doesn’t exist anymore hardly matters, does it? I only posed the 100,000-year question to illustrate my point. That underlying point still stands: We should be confident that changing the electoral system is good, no matter what the future holds. Or rather, that we should be as confident as we can be about any policy change.
On a scale of 100,000 years, it pretty much is binary. Mathematics will not change; basic physical law also (although some of it may come to be seen as limiting cases of some more general ideas); little else can be counted on on that timescale. This feels somewhat analogous.
In the short term, of course things can be a lot more variable.
your credence in a valid logical argument’s conclusion must be at least as high as your credence in its assumptions. (It’s higher because, of course, there can be other sound logical arguments that support your conclusion.)
The longer the chain of reasoning built on uncertain assumptions, the further it may drift from reality.
That underlying point still stands: We should be confident that changing the electoral system is good, no matter what the future holds. Or rather, that we should be as confident as we can be about any policy change.
I never would have disputed this. But you’re being binary: basically “either we know it or we don’t”. It’s not that you’re wrong, it’s that your categories aren’t useful in practice. You’re implicitly bucketing things you’re 99.9% sure about with things that you’re 20% sure about.
In contrast, my view is that you should assign some credence to your set of assumptions being true. And given that, we can say that your credence in a valid logical argument’s conclusion must be at least as high as your credence in its assumptions. (It’s higher because, of course, there can be other sound logical arguments that support your conclusion.)
If you’re restricting your knowledge to known mathematical truths, you’re not going to make any government policies at all.
Conceded, but that’s not a substantive issue to my argument. The electoral system of an office that doesn’t exist anymore hardly matters, does it? I only posed the 100,000-year question to illustrate my point. That underlying point still stands: We should be confident that changing the electoral system is good, no matter what the future holds. Or rather, that we should be as confident as we can be about any policy change.
On a scale of 100,000 years, it pretty much is binary. Mathematics will not change; basic physical law also (although some of it may come to be seen as limiting cases of some more general ideas); little else can be counted on on that timescale. This feels somewhat analogous.
In the short term, of course things can be a lot more variable.
The longer the chain of reasoning built on uncertain assumptions, the further it may drift from reality.
Why are you ignoring my actual point?
“As confident as we can be about any policy change” amounts to not very confident, especially so for making policy for 50 years hence.
I’ve given you quite a lot of thorough explanation as to why that position is wrong. I don’t think there’s any point discussing further.
Agreed.