On a scale of 100,000 years, it pretty much is binary. Mathematics will not change; basic physical law also (although some of it may come to be seen as limiting cases of some more general ideas); little else can be counted on on that timescale. This feels somewhat analogous.
In the short term, of course things can be a lot more variable.
your credence in a valid logical argument’s conclusion must be at least as high as your credence in its assumptions. (It’s higher because, of course, there can be other sound logical arguments that support your conclusion.)
The longer the chain of reasoning built on uncertain assumptions, the further it may drift from reality.
That underlying point still stands: We should be confident that changing the electoral system is good, no matter what the future holds. Or rather, that we should be as confident as we can be about any policy change.
On a scale of 100,000 years, it pretty much is binary. Mathematics will not change; basic physical law also (although some of it may come to be seen as limiting cases of some more general ideas); little else can be counted on on that timescale. This feels somewhat analogous.
In the short term, of course things can be a lot more variable.
The longer the chain of reasoning built on uncertain assumptions, the further it may drift from reality.
Why are you ignoring my actual point?
“As confident as we can be about any policy change” amounts to not very confident, especially so for making policy for 50 years hence.
I’ve given you quite a lot of thorough explanation as to why that position is wrong. I don’t think there’s any point discussing further.
Agreed.