I think that governments already do this to some extent, the UK (and I think many other countries) have enshrined a date in law (2050) that says “net zero carbon emissions from this date”.
The point is almost the same as what you describe. The government wants the votes of environmentally concerned citizens, but it also wants the votes of people who drive or work in a polluting industry.
In the most charitable case the net-zero 2050 commitment is a public statement from the government to polluting industries or car manufacturers that their clock is ticking. So they should maybe stop hiring, or develop alternative products. This push does some of the government’s work for it before it actually works out which policies it needs for net zero. Then, maybe, those policies face less stiff resistance when they do start coming in because time lead giving many of the people who would loose out “time to move”.
With any large change in tax policy, or a policy that causes a big impact financially on a lot of people it does make sense to give a fairly large lead time to warn people. Assuming you wanted to abolish state pensions, doing so tomorrow morning would be madness. But, announcing that they will be abolished and that no one currently under 35 is ever getting a state pension would be a more reasonable approach, gives people more space to plan.
Hmm, I didn’t have the zero-carbon commitment in mind when I wrote this, but you’re right, this post’s idea is basically just a wider application of that. Although I do think my subsequent post is probably more novel (see here: Enforcing Far-Future Contracts for Governments).
As far as the tax changes go, I completely agree, forewarning is great, and totally underutilised. There’s also a faster alternative, which is to nullify any immediate wealth transfers that result from the change. So for instance, if you’re lowering the corporate tax, stock prices will increase, which disproportionately benefits people who are more invested in stocks than, say, real estate. The downside of this is that it requires a very large number of accurate counterfactual valuations (in order to determine the difference). So it’s much easier just to give forewarning.
I think that governments already do this to some extent, the UK (and I think many other countries) have enshrined a date in law (2050) that says “net zero carbon emissions from this date”.
The point is almost the same as what you describe. The government wants the votes of environmentally concerned citizens, but it also wants the votes of people who drive or work in a polluting industry.
In the most charitable case the net-zero 2050 commitment is a public statement from the government to polluting industries or car manufacturers that their clock is ticking. So they should maybe stop hiring, or develop alternative products. This push does some of the government’s work for it before it actually works out which policies it needs for net zero. Then, maybe, those policies face less stiff resistance when they do start coming in because time lead giving many of the people who would loose out “time to move”.
With any large change in tax policy, or a policy that causes a big impact financially on a lot of people it does make sense to give a fairly large lead time to warn people. Assuming you wanted to abolish state pensions, doing so tomorrow morning would be madness. But, announcing that they will be abolished and that no one currently under 35 is ever getting a state pension would be a more reasonable approach, gives people more space to plan.
Hmm, I didn’t have the zero-carbon commitment in mind when I wrote this, but you’re right, this post’s idea is basically just a wider application of that. Although I do think my subsequent post is probably more novel (see here: Enforcing Far-Future Contracts for Governments).
As far as the tax changes go, I completely agree, forewarning is great, and totally underutilised. There’s also a faster alternative, which is to nullify any immediate wealth transfers that result from the change. So for instance, if you’re lowering the corporate tax, stock prices will increase, which disproportionately benefits people who are more invested in stocks than, say, real estate. The downside of this is that it requires a very large number of accurate counterfactual valuations (in order to determine the difference). So it’s much easier just to give forewarning.