But, there’s another problem, and that is the fact that statistical and probabilistic thinking is a real damper on “intellectual” conversation. By this, I mean that there are many individuals who wish to make inferences about the world based on data which they observe, or offer up general typologies to frame a subsequent analysis. These individuals tend to be intelligent and have college degrees. Their discussion ranges over topics such as politics, culture and philosophy. But, introduction of questions about the moments about the distribution, or skepticism as to the representativeness of their sample, and so on, tends to have a chilling affect on the regular flow of discussion. While the average human being engages mostly in gossip and interpersonal conversation of some sort, the self-consciously intellectual interject a bit of data and abstraction (usually in the form of jargon or pithy quotations) into the mix. But the raison d’etre of the intellectual discussion is basically signaling and cuing; in other words, social display. No one really cares about the details and attempting to generate a rigorous model is really beside the point. Trying to push the N much beyond 2 or 3 (what you would see in a college essay format) will only elicit eye-rolling and irritation.
Whoever corrects a mocker invites insult; whoever rebukes a wicked man incurs abuse. Do not rebuke a mocker or he will hate you; rebuke a wise man and he will love you. Instruct a wise man and he will be wiser still; teach a righteous man and he will add to his learning.
But, there’s another problem, and that is the fact that statistical and probabilistic thinking is a real damper on “intellectual” conversation.
It would also be fair to say that being intellectual can often be a dampener of conversation. I say this to emphasize that the problem isn’t statistics or probabilistic thinking—but rather forcing rigour in general, particularly when in the form of challenging what other people say.
If being statistical and probabilistic settles oft-discussed intellectual debates so thoroughly as dampen further discussion, that’s a great thing!
The goal is to get correct answers and move on to the unanswered, unsettled questions that are preventing progress; the goal is to NOT allow a debate to go any longer than necessary, especially—as Nisan mentioned—if the debate is not sane/intelligent.
-- Razib Khan
I think Donald Robert Perry said it more succinctly:
Proverbs 9:7-9
Provided your rebuke is sound.
Ouch. There is too much truth to this. Dangerous stuff.
I registered here just to upvote this. As someone who attends a University where this sort of thing is RAMPANT, thanks you for the post.
It would also be fair to say that being intellectual can often be a dampener of conversation. I say this to emphasize that the problem isn’t statistics or probabilistic thinking—but rather forcing rigour in general, particularly when in the form of challenging what other people say.
I usually use the word “intellectual” to refer to someone who talks about ideas, not necessarily in an intelligent way.
If being statistical and probabilistic settles oft-discussed intellectual debates so thoroughly as dampen further discussion, that’s a great thing!
The goal is to get correct answers and move on to the unanswered, unsettled questions that are preventing progress; the goal is to NOT allow a debate to go any longer than necessary, especially—as Nisan mentioned—if the debate is not sane/intelligent.