When confronting something which may be either a windmill or an evil giant, what question should you be asking?
There are some who ask, “If we do nothing, and that is an evil giant, can we afford to be wrong?” These people consider themselves to be brave and vigilant.
Some ask “If we attack it wrongly, can we afford to pay to replace a windmill?” These people consider themselves cautious and pragmatic.
Still others ask, “With the cost of being wrong so high in either case, shouldn’t we always definitively answer the ‘windmill vs. giant’ question before we act?” And those people consider themselves objective and wise.
But only a tiny few will ask, “Isn’t the fact that we’re giving equal consideration to the existence of evil giants and windmills a warning sign of insanity in ourselves?”
It’s hard to find out what these people consider themselves, because they never get invited to parties.
But only a tiny few will ask, “Isn’t the fact that we’re giving equal consideration to the existence of evil giants and windmills a warning sign of insanity in ourselves?”
And then there’s the fact that we are giving much more consideration to the existence of evil giants than to the existence of good giants.
Well, I guess that’s information about how many people click links and upvote the comments that contained them based on the quality of the linked content.
Not to argue that transcribing the text of the comic isn’t valuable (I do actually appreciate it), but it’s also information about how many people go back and vote on comments from posts imported from OB.
I thought the correct response should be “Is the thing in fact a giant or a windmill?” Rather than considering which way our maps should be biased, what’s the actual territory?
I do tech support, and often get responses like “I think so,” and I usually respond with “Let’s find out.”
In the “evil giant vs windmill” question, the prior probability of it being an evil giant is vanishingly close to zero, and the prior probability of it being a windmill is pretty much one minus the chance that it’s an evil giant. Spending effort discovering the actual territory when every map ever shows it’s a windmill sounds like a waste of effort.
A missile silo disguised as a windmill? A helicopter in an unfortunate position? An odd and inefficient form of rotating radar antenna? A shuttle in launch position? (if one squints, they might think it’s a broken windmill with the vanes having fallen off or something)
These are all just off the top of my head. Remember, if we’re talking about someone who tends to, when they see a windmill, be unsure whether it’s a windmill or an evil giant, there’s probably a reasonable chance that they tend to get confused by other objects too, right? :)
I thought we were listing anything at least as plausible as the evil giant hypothesis. I have no information as the morality distribution of giants in general so I use maximum entropy and assign ‘evil giant’ and ‘good giant’ equal probability.
Given complexity of value, ‘evil giant’ and ‘good giant’ should not be weighted equally; if we have no specific information about the morality distribution of giants, then as with any optimization process, ‘good’ is a much, much smaller target than ‘evil’ (if we’re including apparently-human-hostile indifference).
Unless we believe them to be evolutionarily close to humans, or to have evolved under some selection pressures similar to those that produced morality, etc., in which we can do a bit better than a complexity prior for moral motivations.
(For more on this, check out my new blog, Overcoming Giants.)
Well, if by giants we mean “things that seem to resemble humans only are particularly big”, then we should expect some sort of shared evolutionary history, so....
Or, possibly, a great big fan! In fact with some (unlikely) designs it would be impossible to tell whether it was a fan or a windmill without knowledge of what is on the other end of the connected power lines.
I’d consider myself puzzled. Unidientified object, is it a threat, a potential asset, some kind of Black Swan? Might need to do something even without positive identification. Will probably need to do something to get a better read on the thing.
-- PartiallyClips, “Windmill”
And then there’s the fact that we are giving much more consideration to the existence of evil giants than to the existence of good giants.
Nancy Lebovitz came across this too.
Well, I guess that’s information about how many people click links and upvote the comments that contained them based on the quality of the linked content.
Not to argue that transcribing the text of the comic isn’t valuable (I do actually appreciate it), but it’s also information about how many people go back and vote on comments from posts imported from OB.
And about how much more readers quotes threads seem to get compared with everything else.
I thought the correct response should be “Is the thing in fact a giant or a windmill?” Rather than considering which way our maps should be biased, what’s the actual territory?
I do tech support, and often get responses like “I think so,” and I usually respond with “Let’s find out.”
Giant/windmill differentiation is not a zero-cost operation.
In the “evil giant vs windmill” question, the prior probability of it being an evil giant is vanishingly close to zero, and the prior probability of it being a windmill is pretty much one minus the chance that it’s an evil giant. Spending effort discovering the actual territory when every map ever shows it’s a windmill sounds like a waste of effort.
What about a chunk of probability for the case of where it’s neither giant nor windmill?
Very few things barring the evil giant have the ability to imitate a windmill. I did leave some wiggle room with
because I wished to allow for the chance it may be a bloody great mimic.
A missile silo disguised as a windmill? A helicopter in an unfortunate position? An odd and inefficient form of rotating radar antenna? A shuttle in launch position? (if one squints, they might think it’s a broken windmill with the vanes having fallen off or something)
These are all just off the top of my head. Remember, if we’re talking about someone who tends to, when they see a windmill, be unsure whether it’s a windmill or an evil giant, there’s probably a reasonable chance that they tend to get confused by other objects too, right? :)
You are right! Even I, firmly settled in the fourth camp, was tricked by the false dichotomy of windmill and evil giant.
To be fair, there’s also the possibility that someone disguised a windmill as an evil giant. ;)
A good giant?
Sure, but I wouldn’t give a “good giant” really any more probability than an “evil giant”. Both fall into the “completely negligible” hole. :)
Though, as we all know, if we do find one, the correct action to take is to climb up so that one can stand on its shoulders. :)
I thought we were listing anything at least as plausible as the evil giant hypothesis. I have no information as the morality distribution of giants in general so I use maximum entropy and assign ‘evil giant’ and ‘good giant’ equal probability.
Given complexity of value, ‘evil giant’ and ‘good giant’ should not be weighted equally; if we have no specific information about the morality distribution of giants, then as with any optimization process, ‘good’ is a much, much smaller target than ‘evil’ (if we’re including apparently-human-hostile indifference).
Unless we believe them to be evolutionarily close to humans, or to have evolved under some selection pressures similar to those that produced morality, etc., in which we can do a bit better than a complexity prior for moral motivations.
(For more on this, check out my new blog, Overcoming Giants.)
Well, if by giants we mean “things that seem to resemble humans only are particularly big”, then we should expect some sort of shared evolutionary history, so....
Which can be fun to do with a windmill, also.
Since when do windmills have shoulders? :)
Or, possibly, a great big fan! In fact with some (unlikely) designs it would be impossible to tell whether it was a fan or a windmill without knowledge of what is on the other end of the connected power lines.
Do you consider yourself “objective and wise”?
I’d consider myself puzzled. Unidientified object, is it a threat, a potential asset, some kind of Black Swan? Might need to do something even without positive identification. Will probably need to do something to get a better read on the thing.
That is truly incredible, I regret only that I have but one upvote to give.
Best quote I’ve seen in a long time!