“It is now fully recognized that the brain comprises many specialized regions, each with its own topology and architecture of interneuronal connections.”
Is this really a prediction? I would call it “A blindingly obvious fact.” This page says “Herophilus not only distinguished the cerebrum and the cerebellum, but provided the first clear description of the ventricles”, and the putamen and corpus callosum were discovered in the 16th century, etc. etc. Sorry if I’m misunderstanding, I don’t know the context.
ETA: Maybe I should be more specific and nuanced. I think it’s uncontroversial and known for hundreds if not thousands of years that the brain comprises many regions which look different—for example, the cerebellum, the putamen, etc. I think it’s also widely agreed for 100+ years that each is “specialized”, at least in the sense that different regions have different functions, although the term is kinda vague. The idea that “each [has] its own topology and architecture of interneuronal connections” is I think the default assumption … if they had the same topology and architecture, why would they look different? And now that we know what neurons are and have good microscopes, this is no longer just a default assumption, but an (I think) uncontroversial observation.
[...] Rotating memories and other electromechanical computing devices have been fully replaced with electronic devices. Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are now a prevalent form of computing circuitry.
The majority of “computes” of computers are now devoted to massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms.
Significant progress has been made in the scanning-based reverse engineering of the human brain. It is now fully recognized that the brain comprises many specialized regions, each with its own topology and architecture of interneuronal connections. The massively parallel algorithms are beginning to be understood, and these results have been applied to the design of machine-based neural nets. It is recognized that the human genetic code does not specify the precise interneuronal wiring of any of the regions, but rather sets up a rapid evolutionary process in which connections are established and fight for survival. The standard process for wiring machine-based neural nets uses a similar genetic evolutionary algorithm. [...]
Thanks¸ that actually helps a lot, I didn’t get that it was from the voice of someone in the future. I still don’t see any way to make sense of that as a “prediction”, i.e. something that is true but was not fully recognized in 1999.
The closest thing I can think of that would make sense is if he were claiming that the neocortex comprises many specialized regions, each with its own topology and architecture of interneuronal connections (cf zhukeepa’s post a couple days ago). But that’s not it. Not only would Kurzweil be unlikely to say “brain” when he meant “neocortex”, but I also happen to know that Kurzweil is a strong advocate against the idea that the neocortex comprises many architecturally-different regions. Well, at least he advocated for cortical uniformity in his 2012 book, and when I read that I also got the impression that he had believed the same thing for a long time before that.
I think he put that in and phrased it as a prediction just for narrative flow, while setting up the subsequent sentences … like if he had written
“It is now fully recognized that every object is fundamentally made out of just a few dozen types of atoms. Therefore, molecular assemblers with the right feedstock can make any object on demand...”
or whatever. The first sentence here is phrased as a prediction but it isn’t really.
Is this really a prediction? I would call it “A blindingly obvious fact.” This page says “Herophilus not only distinguished the cerebrum and the cerebellum, but provided the first clear description of the ventricles”, and the putamen and corpus callosum were discovered in the 16th century, etc. etc. Sorry if I’m misunderstanding, I don’t know the context.
ETA: Maybe I should be more specific and nuanced. I think it’s uncontroversial and known for hundreds if not thousands of years that the brain comprises many regions which look different—for example, the cerebellum, the putamen, etc. I think it’s also widely agreed for 100+ years that each is “specialized”, at least in the sense that different regions have different functions, although the term is kinda vague. The idea that “each [has] its own topology and architecture of interneuronal connections” is I think the default assumption … if they had the same topology and architecture, why would they look different? And now that we know what neurons are and have good microscopes, this is no longer just a default assumption, but an (I think) uncontroversial observation.
Here’s the context:
Thanks¸ that actually helps a lot, I didn’t get that it was from the voice of someone in the future. I still don’t see any way to make sense of that as a “prediction”, i.e. something that is true but was not fully recognized in 1999.
The closest thing I can think of that would make sense is if he were claiming that the neocortex comprises many specialized regions, each with its own topology and architecture of interneuronal connections (cf zhukeepa’s post a couple days ago). But that’s not it. Not only would Kurzweil be unlikely to say “brain” when he meant “neocortex”, but I also happen to know that Kurzweil is a strong advocate against the idea that the neocortex comprises many architecturally-different regions. Well, at least he advocated for cortical uniformity in his 2012 book, and when I read that I also got the impression that he had believed the same thing for a long time before that.
I think he put that in and phrased it as a prediction just for narrative flow, while setting up the subsequent sentences … like if he had written
“It is now fully recognized that every object is fundamentally made out of just a few dozen types of atoms. Therefore, molecular assemblers with the right feedstock can make any object on demand...”
or whatever. The first sentence here is phrased as a prediction but it isn’t really.
I didn’t judge whether it was plausible or trivial; I just took out every thing that was formulated as a prediction for the future.