Consider Parfit’s hitchhiker. If your strategy is to pay him the money, you’ll do better, but when it comes time to implement that strategy, you have information that makes it pointless (you know he already picked you up, and he can’t not have done it in response to you not paying him).
In this case, the evidence is certain, but it can be modified so that the amount of evidence you have before making the decision is arbitrary.
Parfit’s hitchhiker can still predict that when he has been picked up, he will have the option of not paying. Is there anything in the argument I actually make that you are objecting to?
Consider Parfit’s hitchhiker. If your strategy is to pay him the money, you’ll do better, but when it comes time to implement that strategy, you have information that makes it pointless (you know he already picked you up, and he can’t not have done it in response to you not paying him).
In this case, the evidence is certain, but it can be modified so that the amount of evidence you have before making the decision is arbitrary.
Parfit’s hitchhiker can still predict that when he has been picked up, he will have the option of not paying. Is there anything in the argument I actually make that you are objecting to?