What is the difference between “There is a 99.9999% chance he’s dead, and I’m 99.9999% confident of this, Jim” and “He’s dead, Jim.”?
Pedanterrific nailed it.
Or rather, people mostly don’t realize that even claims for which they have high confidence ought to have probabilities attached to them. If I observe that someone seems to be dead, and I tell another person “he’s dead,” what I mean is that I have a very high but less than 1 confidence that he’s dead. A person might think they’re justified in being absolutely certain that someone is dead, but this is something that people have been wrong about plenty of times before; they’re simply unaware of the possibility that they’re wrong.
Suppose that you want to be really sure that the person is dead, so you cut their head off. Can you be absolutely certain then? No, they could have been substituted by an illusion by some Sufficiently Advanced technology you’re not aware of, they could be some amazing never-before-seen medical freak who can survive with their body cut off, or more likely, you’re simply delusional and only imagined that you cut off their head or saw them dead in the first place. These things are very unlikely, but if the next day they turn up perfectly fine, answer questions only they should be able to answer, confirm their identity with dental records, fingerprints, retinal scan and DNA tests, give you your secret handshake and assure you that they absolutely did not die yesterday, you had better start regarding the idea that they died with a lot more suspicion.
Or rather, people mostly don’t realize that even claims for which they have high confidence ought to have probabilities attached to them.
Thank you for reiterating how to properly formulate beliefs. Unfortunately, this is not relevant to this conversation.
A person might think they’re justified in being absolutely certain that someone is dead, but this is something that people have been wrong about plenty of times before; they’re simply unaware of the possibility that they’re wrong.
That a truth claim is later falsified does not mean it wasn’t a truth claim.
Suppose that you want to be really sure that the person is dead, so you cut their head off. Can you be absolutely certain then? No, they could have been substituted by an illusion by some Sufficiently Advanced technology you’re not aware of,
Again, thank you for again demonstrating the Problem of Induction. Again, it just isn’t relevant to this conversation.
By continuing to bring these points up you are rejecting restrictions, definitions, and qualifiers I have added to my claims, to the point where what you are attempting to discuss is entirely unrelated to anything I’m discussing.
I have no interesting in talking past one another.
Pedanterrific nailed it.
Or rather, people mostly don’t realize that even claims for which they have high confidence ought to have probabilities attached to them. If I observe that someone seems to be dead, and I tell another person “he’s dead,” what I mean is that I have a very high but less than 1 confidence that he’s dead. A person might think they’re justified in being absolutely certain that someone is dead, but this is something that people have been wrong about plenty of times before; they’re simply unaware of the possibility that they’re wrong.
Suppose that you want to be really sure that the person is dead, so you cut their head off. Can you be absolutely certain then? No, they could have been substituted by an illusion by some Sufficiently Advanced technology you’re not aware of, they could be some amazing never-before-seen medical freak who can survive with their body cut off, or more likely, you’re simply delusional and only imagined that you cut off their head or saw them dead in the first place. These things are very unlikely, but if the next day they turn up perfectly fine, answer questions only they should be able to answer, confirm their identity with dental records, fingerprints, retinal scan and DNA tests, give you your secret handshake and assure you that they absolutely did not die yesterday, you had better start regarding the idea that they died with a lot more suspicion.
Thank you for reiterating how to properly formulate beliefs. Unfortunately, this is not relevant to this conversation.
That a truth claim is later falsified does not mean it wasn’t a truth claim.
Again, thank you for again demonstrating the Problem of Induction. Again, it just isn’t relevant to this conversation.
By continuing to bring these points up you are rejecting restrictions, definitions, and qualifiers I have added to my claims, to the point where what you are attempting to discuss is entirely unrelated to anything I’m discussing.
I have no interesting in talking past one another.